How Germany’s Friedrich Merz fell short in first Parliamentary vote for Chancellor

Last month, Merz announced an unusual coalition agreement with the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD), combining Germany’s two establishment parties in a move designed to sideline the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), which placed second in February’s election. But Tuesday’s vote suggests dissatisfaction within one or both coalition camps.

Lawmakers vote by secret ballot, making it difficult to determine exactly where Merz lost support. However, it appears 18 MPs who had been expected to vote for him defected. The result leaves Germany in a political limbo: ministers cannot be sworn in, and Olaf Scholz and his cabinet will remain in place as caretakers until a resolution is reached.

The outcome forced Merz to postpone a planned round of foreign visits to Paris and Warsaw, meant to signal international stability. Instead, he must now rally votes for a second attempt later this week.

Christian Democrat colleague Johann Wadephul, Merz’s pick for foreign minister, downplayed the setback in comments to the BBC, calling it “an obstacle but not a catastrophe.”

“We will have a second attempt, of course, with again Friedrich Merz as the candidate from the coalition. And I’m sure he will be elected and he will be the next chancellor.”

Carsten Linnemann, secretary general of the Christian Democrats, told Phoenix TV he was “very surprised” by the result. He noted that Merz received a standing ovation from party delegates after the vote, underscoring their ongoing support. “The world and Europe are not waiting for us – on the contrary, they would like us to return to stability quickly,” he said, pushing for a new vote as soon as possible.

Parliament now has two weeks to elect a chancellor. There is no cap on the number of rounds. If Merz fails again to win an outright majority, the process moves to a third phase where a chancellor can be chosen by a relative majority, meaning whoever gets the most votes wins, even without crossing the 316-vote threshold. Given the Christian Democrats hold the most seats, Merz or another CDU figure would be favoured. However, in such a case, Germany’s president could choose to dissolve parliament and call new elections.

AfD co-leader Alice Weidel responded by calling for Merz’s resignation and fresh elections. “We are ready to take on responsibility in government,” she said.

While Merz remains the most likely eventual chancellor, the failure to clear the first hurdle could sap his authority both at home and abroad. Holger Schmieding, an economist at Berenberg, told The New York Times: “It shows that he cannot fully rely on his two coalition parties. That will sow some doubts about his ability to fully pursue his agenda, damaging his domestic and international authority, at least initially.”

A longtime figure in German politics, Merz served in the European Parliament beginning in 1989 before clashing with Angela Merkel and leaving politics in the early 2000s. He spent over a decade in the private sector and returned to politics in 2018 when Merkel stepped down as CDU leader. If elected, he will become the oldest German chancellor since Konrad Adenauer, the country’s first postwar head of government.

This marks the first time Merz has participated in coalition talks, and according to Deutsche Welle, some in the media and from within the negotiating teams have criticised his inexperience. Nevertheless, others see his outsider credentials as an asset. Wirtschaftswoche, a leading German business magazine, called Merz a “trans-atlanticist, friend of Europe, and reformer,” and said he could be “exactly the right person for the current times.”

His failure to take office immediately has already had economic repercussions. The DAX, Germany’s main stock index, dropped 1.6 per cent, led by declines in defence and energy stocks that had been expected to benefit from the incoming coalition’s investment plans.

Green Party politician Katrin Göring-Eckardt offered a stark warning: “This isn’t good. Even though I don’t want this chancellor or support him, I can only warn everyone not to rejoice in chaos.”