In 6 years, China must reduce carbon emissions by at least 66%: Study

China, which accounts for nearly 30 per cent of annual global emissions, currently has no emission reduction targets, and its emissions are still growing year on year. A report released earlier this week said China’s emissions in 2024 were likely to be 0.2 per cent higher than the previous year. It was originally aiming to let its emissions peak only in 2030, but recent estimates suggest that the peaking might happen by 2025 at the latest.

China’s emission’s have grown nearly four-fold since 1990. It is the world’s largest emitter since 2006, but because it is categorised as a developing country in the global climate architecture, it is not mandated to make absolute emission cuts like the developed nations. But without large emissions cuts from China, all climate targets, including the global net-zero, would be very difficult to be achieved. China’s own target of a net-zero status by 2060 would require it to reduce its emissions by at least 27 per cent by 2035, the analysis said.

The Carbon Action Tracker’s analysis found that the United States must reduce its emissions by at least 65 per cent from 2005 levels by 2030. US is currently aiming to achieve 50-52 per cent reduction by that time, and even appears threatened now because of election of Donald Trump as President.

India’s emissions in 2030 must not be more than 25 per cent above 2005 levels to remain 1.5 degree aligned, the analysis said. India’s current emissions are already more than 50 per cent above 2005 levels, and continuing to grow. They are not expected to decline in the near future.

The CAT analysis is the latest reminder of the near-impossible target that the world is pursuing for 2030. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimated that global emissions would have to decline 43 per cent from 2019 levels by 2030 to keep alive hopes for remaining within the 1.5 degree Celsius threshold. However, repeated assessments by the UN Climate Change has showed that even in the best case scenario, all current climate actions were likely to result in no more than 2 per cent reduction by 2030.