As Eknath Shinde, the man who steadied Mahayuti ship, takes a step down, what challenges will he face?

Months after the Shiv Sena registered a better performance than the BJP in the Lok Sabha elections — it had a better strike rate — and emerged as the second-largest party in the Assembly with 57 seats, Shinde may have held out hope of returning to the top job. However, the BJP’s historic tally of 132 seats killed off any prospects of that happening.

This was a reversal compared to June 2022 when Shinde’s rebellion — he broke away from the Uddhav Thackeray-led party with 40 MLAs — caused the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) government topple and brought the Mahayuti to power. That could only happen as the BJP leadership acquiesced to the Sena’s demand to appoint Shinde the CM and forced Fadnavis, a former CM, to agree to become the Deputy CM. This happened despite the BJP being the single-largest party in the Assembly with 105 MLAs.

At the time, it was assumed that Shinde would largely play second fiddle to Fadnavis, a more experienced administrator who would call the shots. But Shinde managed to hold his own as he ran the government and prepared to politically consolidate his party’s position. Though the alliance overall faced a setback in the Lok Sabha elections — the Mahayuti’s tally was just 17, way behind the MVA’s count of 30 — Shinde emerged stronger on account of his party winning seven of the 15 seats it contested. This was a better strike rate than the BJP, which won nine of the 28 seats it contested.

With this showing, the Sena became the third-largest BJP ally in the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) after the Telugu Desam Party and the Janata Dal (United) and underlined its importance if the BJP had to win Maharashtra. It also allowed him to play a big role in steadying the Mahayuti ship.

Shinde the CM

Despite not being a seasoned orator or administrator, Shinde not only managed to efficiently run the government but also downsized his rivals in the coalition and kept the MVA in check. His party colleagues and other Mahayuti leaders said the government’s populist schemes — among them, the Majhi Ladki Bahin Yojana for women voters, the Ladka Bhau scheme for young men, and a farm loan waiver, infrastructure push, liberal release of funds for different departments and MLAs, and the setting up more than 50 corporations for different communities — gave the alliance the edge.

Politically, Shinde also held his own, driving a hard bargain during the Lok Sabha and Assembly election seat-sharing negotiations and ensuring that the BJP and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) led by Ajit Pawar do not run over the Sena.

This was, in part, down to the link between him and the BJP top leadership in Delhi that is said to trust him. “Shinde has successfully made sure his people get justice and are rehabilitated which helped him ensure support for him among his party leaders remains intact and the party is strengthened,” said a Sena functionary.

Though the Maratha quota issue dented the Mahayuti in the parliamentary elections, Shinde’s handling of the politically sensitive matter — earlier this year, he got quota activist Manoj Jarange-Patil to stand down when he was leading a march to Mumbai to press his case — bolstered his image as a strong Maratha leader, eclipsed only by someone of the stature of NCP (SP) chief Sharad Pawar.

Though the Sena managed to win 57 of the more than 85 seats it contested, winning the debate about who represents the real Sena, him or his former boss Uddhav Thackeray, the size of the mandate the BJP received made it difficult for him to press his case to retain the CM’s chair.

Agreeing to come a peck down the hierarchy, Shinde now faces a few major challenges. He has to ensure he gets a fair share of powerful portfolios, that the Sena does not get downsized in the government, and also carefully pick Cabinet ministers from his party keeping regional and caste factors in mind. Within months, local body elections are expected to be held and will be a major test for the Sena. It will provide Shinde the opportunity to finally finish off his rival Sena party politically.

Shinde’s political journey

Among the things that have worked for Shinde is his hands-on approach to governance and the underdog story. Shinde was born in a family of farmers in western Maharashtra’s Satara district. They moved to Thane in search of a better life and after completing his education he started driving an autorickshaw to support his family. He became a labour leader and in the 1980s joined the Shiv Sena, swayed by the son-of-the-soil politics of party founder Bal Thackeray. His entry into politics was by the hands of Anand Dighe, his mentor and the Sena’s top leader in Thane at the time.

In 1997, Shinde was elected a corporator in the Thane Municipal Corporation, marking the start of his meteoric rise. Seven years later, he was elected to the Assembly for the first time and the following year was appointed the party head in Thane. Serving as MLA for four terms, Shinde served as the minister of various departments such as Public Works, Public Health and Family Welfare, Urban Development, and Home Affairs in the Fadnavis and Uddhav Thackeray governments.

Sena leaders said Shinde internalised the message of Hindutva that Bal Thackeray espoused and somewhere Uddhav’s decision to break ranks with the BJP and ally with longtime rivals NCP and Congress rankled him and ultimately led to the 2022 rebellion.