With the disqualification of BJP MLA Vikram Singh Saini, Khatauli Assembly seat in Muzaffarnagar district will be the third seat in Uttar Pradesh where by-elections will be held on December 5. A notice to this effect was issued by the Election Commission on Tuesday. The two other seats where bypoll will be held on December 5 are Mainpuri Lok Sabha seat which fell vacant after the death of Samajwadi Party (SP) patriarch Mulayam Singh Yadav, and Rampur Sadar after the incumbent SP MLA Azam Khan was disqualified following his conviction in a 2019 hate speech case. The counting of votes will take place on December 8. But even before the announcement of the bypoll, the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD), an ally of the SP, seems to have started political mobilisation in the constituency, which it last won a decade ago during the 2012 Assembly polls. Taking a lead over the others, RLD will hold a roadshow and two public meetings, which will be addressed by party chief Jayant Chaudhary, in Khatauli next week. RLD workers are already camping in the constituency to ensure a good turnout of people at the roadshow and the rallies. “Our preparations were going on even when people were saying that there would be no by-election in Khatauli," the RLD chief told mediapersons in Baghpat after Election Commission announced the bypoll date. “People of Khatauli will now get another chance. I have full faith they will elect a positive candidate," Chaudhary added. Sources in the RLD said that four to five names have been shortlisted to contest the bypoll for the party. “Jayant Chaudhary was the first to raise the question on Vikram Singh Saini's membership after he was convicted in the 2013 Muzaffarnagar riots case,” RLD spokesperson Sunil Rohta told The Indian Express referring to Chaudhary's letter to Assembly Speaker Satish Mahana in which he had asked why the Khatauli MLA still remained an MLA despite weeks after his conviction. Chaudhary had also highlighted the Speaker's swift action against SP MLA Azam Khan, disqualifying him a day after his conviction in a hate speech case. A week later, the UP Assembly Secretariat announced Khatauli seat vacant, nearly a month after Saini's conviction – the BJP MLA was sentenced to two years of imprisonment on October 11. “We have made elaborate arrangements to ensure the success of our rallies and the roadshow. We will highlight the misgovernance of the double-engine BJP government,” the RLD spokesperson said, referring to the BJP governments at the Centre and the state. In the Assembly elections held in March this year, Vikram Singh Saini, an OBC leader, retained Khatauli for the BJP by defeating RLD's Rajpal Singh Saini. He polled 45.34 per cent votes – nearly 7 per cent more than the RLD nominee. RLD had contested the election in alliance with the SP. Five years ago, in the 2017 Assembly polls, Vikram Singh Saini won for Khatauli for the first time by defeating the SP candidate. The RLD, which had then contested separately, came fourth with just six per cent vote share. The BSP, on the other hand, came third in the 2017 and 2022 Assembly polls. “Triangular contests helped the BJP win both in 2022 and 2017,” a BJP leader said. Due to the dominance of Jatav Dalit voters, BSP has been getting a sizeable number of votes in Khatauli. In the 2022 Assembly polls, Mayawati's party secured 14 per cent votes. In 2017, the party secured 17.6 per cent vote share. The BSP has won Khatauli only once in 2007 when it got an absolute majority in the Assembly. In 2012, the party was runner-up there with 24 per cent vote share. Khatauli has over 1.5 lakh OBC voters but they are divided into different sub-castes like Prajapatis, Jats, Sainis, Kashyaps, Gujjars, and Pals among others. Muslims constitute the single largest chunk of the electorate with 80,000 voters, followed by Dalits with 45,000 voters. Among the OBCs, Sainis count over 35,000 votes. “Jats and Muslims, which are known to be against the BJP, together constitute less than one lakh voters in Khatauli, which is less compared to other Assembly constituencies in west UP. This gave an advantage to the BJP in the past two elections when polarisation was strong,” said an RLD leader in Khatauli. “In case the BSP skips the bypoll in Khatauli, as it is planning to do in Mainpuri and Rampur, it will make the contest tough for the BJP, which will be pitched against the RLD, possibly backed by the SP, making it the lone claimant for Muslim votes. In such a situation, how Dalit voters will vote will become crucial for the BJP,” said the RLD leader, expressing hope that RLD will contest the seat in alliance with SP again. Meanwhile, the BJP is weighing on the legal recourse being taken by Vikram Singh Saini against his disqualification. “We have appealed in the High Court against the special court's order sentencing my client to exactly two years of imprisonment. Let us wait and watch," Bharatveer Ahlawat, the lawyer for Saini, told The Indian Express. Saini had earlier told The Indian Express that his case was “not fit for disqualification” as he has been sentenced to two years of imprisonment. “If I was convicted for three years, I would have lost my seat too… I have not been sentenced for a day more than two years,” Saini had claimed. Section 8 (3) of The Representation of the People Act, 1951 states: “A person convicted of any offence and sentenced to imprisonment for not less than two years. shall be disqualified from the date of such conviction and shall continue to be disqualified for a further period of six years since his release.” On October 11, a special court convicted Saini and 10 others of assault, rioting and unlawful Assembly in a 2013 riots case in Muzaffarnagar. At least 60 people were killed and over 50,000 people were displaced in the riots.
