AS THE Election Commission on Saturday announced the schedule for bypolls in the Mainpuri Lok Sabha constituency and the Rampur Assembly seat, the task of winning the seats is a formidable challenge, both for the ruling BJP and the main Opposition, Samajwadi Party (SP).
According to the schedule announced by the poll panel on Saturday, notification will be issued on November 10, the last date for filing nominations is November 17 and November 21 will be the last date for withdrawal of candidature. Polling will be held on December 5 and votes will be counted on December 8.
Later on Saturday, both the BJP and the SP began organising meetings regarding preparations. While SP president Akhilesh Yadav held a meeting with party leaders in Lucknow and later reached his home village, Saifai, to speak to leaders in Mainpuri constituency, BJP leaders, including former candidates, held a meeting in Mainpuri district to plan the party’s campaign.
The SP, that won both the seats in the respective general elections, will be feeling some extra pressure. Mainpuri is considered a bastion of the party and the seat had fallen vacant following the death of party founder Mulayam Singh Yadav last month. Mulayam was elected MP from this seat five times — 2019, 2014, 2009, 2004 and 1996. In 2004, Mulayam secured 64 per cent votes.
Apart from these elections when Mulayam himself contested in Mainpuri, the SP also won the seat in 1998, 1999 and in a bypoll in 2014. Mulayam vacated the seat in 2014 and his grand nephew, Tej Pratap Singh Yadav, was elected with 64.46 per cent vote share.
In 1998 and 1999, SP’s Balram Singh Yadav won the seat. Thus, history shows that the SP has been winning Mainpuri continuously since 1996. In the previous two general elections and one bypoll, BJP was the runner-up there.
BJP leader Prem Singh Shakya, who lost in the 2019 general elections claimed, “Social equations remained in favour of the Yadav family there. Also, the SP was ruling in Uttar Pradesh in 2014 and the then state government misused power and money to win the general elections and the bypoll. The BJP will win the coming bypoll because there will be free and fair elections under the Yogi Adityanath-led BJP government.”
The saffron party also claimed that Dalits, too, supported the SP in 2019 because Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) president Mayawati had shared stage with Mulayam and appealed for votes for him. “When Mulayam’s family members touched Mayawati’s feet on stage… that shifted Dalit votes in support of Mulayam. Despite that, Mulayam won that election by a margin of only 94,389 votes… he had won the seat by a bigger margin in the past,” said BJP’s Mainpuri district president Pradeep Singh Chauhan.
Mulayam had won in Mainpuri with a margin of 3.64 lakh votes in 2014 and 1.73 lakh votes in 2009.
Mainpuri Lok Sabha comprises five Assembly segments — Mainpuri, Bhongaon, Kishani, Karhal and Jaswantnagar — of which SP had won three and BJP had won two in the 2022 Assembly elections. Akhilesh Yadav was elected MLA from Karhal while Mulayam’s younger brother, Shivpal Singh Yadav, won Jaswantnagar seat.
The Mainpuri constituency sees dominance of Yadav voters, who are more than five lakh in number. There are nearly four lakh non-Yadav OBCs, including Shakya, Saini, Maurya, Lodh and others. There are around 2.5 lakh Dalits and over 60,000 Muslims. The remaining voters are from different upper castes.
Choosing a candidate for Mainpuri is a tough task for Akhilesh as he will face the challenge of retaining the sitting seat of his father and the candidate will be seen as Mulayam’s successor in the region.
While Yadavs’ dominance poses a challenge for BJP in Mainpuri, Muslims – considered another vote bank of the SP – are the challenge for the saffron party in the Rampur Assembly seat that fell vacant last week when SP senior leader Azam Khan lost his state Assembly membership after his conviction in a hate speech case.
Azam won this Muslim-dominated seat 10 times, including six times as SP candidate. Once his wife Tazeen Fatma won a bypoll in 2019 when Azam resigned from the Assembly to retain his Lok Sabha membership. Azam faced defeat in the Rampur Assembly seat only once – in 1996 when Congress candidate Afroz Ali Khan won.
Interestingly, the BJP emerged runner-up in Rampur only in the 2022, 2017 and 1991 elections.— when it won absolute majority in the Assembly. Earlier, the Congress finished second there in 2012, 2007, 2002 and 1989.
Asked about the SP’s plans for the Rampur bypoll, party spokesperson Rajendra Chaudhary said on Saturday that the party would finalise its candidate “after discussion with Azam Khan.” “Both the seats were won by SP earlier. We will win both the seats again in the coming bypoll,” Chaudhary said.
The BSP and the SP are likely to come face-to-face in a contest months after the BJP’s Ghanshyam Singh Lodhi defeated SP’s Asim Raja in Rampur Lok Sabha bypoll in June this year. Asim is seen as an Azam loyalist and by-election was necessitated after Azam resigned from Lok Sabha membership after getting elected to Vidhan Sabha from Rampur Sadar.
Mulayam had won in Mainpuri with a margin of 3.64 lakh votes in 2014 and 1.73 lakh votes in 2009. 
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