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Given the centrality of Gujarat for the BJP in general, and the current party leadership in particular, and the impact its results will have on 2024, the party is leaving little to chance to ensure there is no dip in a state where it has been in power now for 27 years and has been winning nearly 50% of the votes.
What has the BJP concerned are surveys showing fraying of its absolute dominance in the state, a yearning for change, as well as the nimbleness of the AAP, which has proved as adept as the BJP at the perception game, and is taking the larger party head-on over some of its pet issues. The AAP impact is likely to be felt more by the Congress in the two-party state, but if it hits the mark of 12-15 per cent of vote share and a dozen seats – as indicated by BJP internal surveys – the resonance will be felt on the national stage.
Party sources said the Gujarat results will be an indicator of the robustness of the organisation, so far an unbeatable election-winning machine, effectiveness of its strategies and the enduring popularity of its leadership.
In a sign of the party doing a reset for the big fight, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who retains his popularity, has stepped up visits to the state, announcing new programmes and projects. Union Home Minister Amit Shah, who helped build the BJP in the state, is back holding meetings, including one to screen and shortlist candidates being held for the past three days in Gujarat.
The factors that the BJP is worried about are resentment among farmers, especially in the Saurashtra and northern Gujarat region, unemployment concerns, and lack of enthusiasm in the cadre about the current state leadership.
The tragedy in Morbi, where over 130 people died in a bridge collapse, may have worsened the situation for the BJP in Saurashtra. In the last election, the Congress had won most of its seats from Saurashtra and north Gujarat.
In 2017, the BJP tally came down from 115 in 2012 to 99 (it later won bypolls and wooed Congress turncoats, to go up to 111). While 99 was the BJP’s lowest since 1995, its tally has actually been falling consistently in the state – having got 127 seats in 2002, and 117 in 2007. However, its vote share has always hovered around the 50% mark.
Once the dominant force in the state, the Congress, which won 51 seats with 39.8% votes in 2002, has correspondingly been improving its strength – 59 seats (38% votes) in 2007, 61 seats (40.59% votes) in 2012 and 77 seats (41.44%) votes in the last election.
Party leaders conceded that anti-incumbency has sharpened due to the “non-charismatic” state leadership. Chief Minister Bhupendra Patel took over only a year ago, in a complete and stunning overhaul of the Cabinet. While he is yet to find his feet, previous CM Vijay Rupani recently hinted that the change might not have gone down as smoothly as the BJP projected. In an interview to The Indian Express, he said he was in the dark till the last moment that he was being removed.
The BJP leadership earlier indicated it could drop at least 25% of the sitting legislators, especially those seen as “uninspiring” and unpopular. But the developments in Himachal Pradesh, where the party is struggling with a serious rebel crisis ahead of the November 12 elections, seems to have dissuaded the leadership.
Asserting that it was not about any fears of a loss, but about the optics for 2024, a party leader said: “The survey results have put us on alert, but the leadership is confident that with micro management of constituencies where the BJP has concerns, we will be able to manage. We will not let our tally fall to the number in 2017.”
