A new population policy released by Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath has stated that it not only aims to bring fertility levels down, but also, notably, to “ensure there is a population balance among various communities”. In a state where the ruling BJP has not held back from putting polarisation over matters of inter-faith marriage, conversion or citizen protests to political use, it is difficult not to hear the communal dog-whistle in this demographic talk — especially with an assembly election only months away. Parallel to this, a draft of the Uttar Pradesh Population (Control, Stabilisation and Welfare) Bill, 2021, published a few days ago and inviting public feedback, makes clear its preference for punishment as a means of “population control”. It proposes that any citizen who “violates” a two-child policy not only be barred from contesting local bodies polls — similar restrictions exist in several other states — but also from applying for, or getting promotion in, government jobs, and even receiving government subsidy.
A policy or law that arms governments with more powers over citizens is erroneous for another fundamental reason: India is not being threatened by a “population explosion”. The National Family Health Survey (NFHS) and Census data show that in most states, and many urban areas, the total fertility rate (TFR) has already reached replacement levels (2.1). On a national level, TFR has declined from 3.4 in 1994 to 2.2 in 2015. Contrary to the paranoid demographic visions conjured by a section of Hindutva ideologues, decadal growth rates have declined across all religious communities, with the fertility rate falling faster among Muslims than in Hindus. Even in populous UP, the TFR has fallen an impressive 1.1 points to 2.7 in the span of a decade — without the state’s coercive measures. Indeed, China’s recent policy reversal of its restrictive child-bearing norms points to the limits of measures of state engineering of population, besides being anti-democratic.
