Opinion PM Narendra Modi’s tour will point to shifts in old ties with a Europe roiled by war, beset with new anxieties

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s three-nation Europe tour will set the stage for India’s wider engagement with the continent in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. After the Second World War, this is the first time that Europe is witnessing conflict close to home. More than five million refugees from Ukraine are now living in host countries across the continent, and Russian President Vladimir Putin’s nuclear threats have rattled states that never expected to see war again. Europe’s economic powerhouse Germany, which is PM Modi’s first port of call, had turned pacifist to the point of not wanting a military in penance for Nazi excesses during the war. It has now made a huge political and strategic choice to support Ukraine in its defence against Russia with weapons, also deciding to spend more money to beef up its own defences. Chancellor Olaf Scholz, an anti-war Social Democrat, finds himself leading the country through this complex time in which the nation has decided to make economic sacrifices by agreeing to the costly proposition of cutting energy dependence on Moscow, even though his first instinct was to resist US pressure to join the anti-Russia coalition. For Delhi, too, Putin’s decision has been problematic for its long-standing bilateral ties with Moscow. In an interview to this newspaper, Scholz has said the war will be at the top of the agenda during Modi’s visit, and that Germany, one of Delhi’s most important partners in Europe, expects “broad agreement” with India on Russian accountability. The US-led West, which claims to understand India’s position on Russia and yet asks it to “choose the right side” will be watching to understand how far Delhi is prepared to go on this visit in making common cause with Europe.

Europe’s shift must also be seen in the context of President Emmanuel Macron’s convincing victory in the recent elections, which however, has not been able to hide the political advance of the French right-wing. President Macron’s efforts early this year, weeks ahead of the election, to try and prevent the war through meetings with Putin, were made in the full clarity of knowing that the war would divide not just Europe but also France. The French, who have interests in the Indo-Pacific, have been more than put out at being left out of the Quad, and the manner in which the AUKUS blindsided their defence relations with Australia. Modi’s stop-over in Paris may provide a better understanding of the role France wants to play in the region, aside from strengthening bilateral ties. Denmark is part of the India-Nordic summit, and is important to India’s engagement with Europe on trade and climate change. This bloc has been beset with new insecurities after Russia’s Ukrainian misadventure. Two of its members, Sweden and Finland, are mulling joining NATO.

Advertisement

Strategic convergence with a Europe that looks to the US as a guarantor of its security interests would require India to make important shifts in its own relationships. An invitation to India to attend the G-7 would be a significant indicator. More immediately, it is no secret that the EU is keen on a free trade agreement with India, negotiations for which have been ongoing for a decade. In this respect, Modi’s visit may set the stage for an India-EU summit.

This editorial first appeared in the print edition on May 3, 2022 under the title ‘Reset after Ukraine’.