Opinion Election results in France put Macron in a precarious position. He must build alliances or risk more instability

Less than two months after Emmanuel Macron became the first incumbent to win the French presidency since Jacques Chirac in 2002, he has suffered an equally historic political setback. His political alliance, Ensemble, has lost control of the National Assembly, making him the first president since 1988 to lose the legislature so soon after a presidential victory. Given the turmoil in French politics and society over the last few years, and Macron’s ambitious agenda for reform, the legislative election results augur at best a period of negotiation and alliance-building and at worst, policy paralysis and snap elections. At a broader level, even as the idea of “western democracy” is being shored up in the wake of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the election results show that the liberal, pro-market and pro-globalisation worldview championed by Macron has failed to address the growing inequality and popular disenchantment in France.

Both the Left and the far-Right have gained in the National Assembly. Ensemble is still the single largest alliance with 245 seats in the 577-member assembly, while NUPES, the grouping of Left parties, is set to be the primary opposition with 131 seats and the xenophobic National Rally led by Marine Le Pen grew 10-fold to about 90 seats. Le Pen and Jean-Luc Melenchon, despite their vast political differences, have one thing in common: They oppose the form of free-market globalisation and European integration that Macron champions. For the National Rally, immigration and the movement of labour facilitated by an integrated Europe provides a platform for a revanchist French cultural nationalism while for Melenchon, Macron’s proposals to increase the retirement age and reduce labour protections are to be fought tooth and nail.

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During his tenure, Macron has done his best to reclaim France’s global stature, from playing a leadership role in the EU to engaging in multiple geopolitical theatres including Ukraine and the Indo-Pacific. Yet, the message in the verdict is clear, even if some in the ruling party seem unable to decipher it. Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne, for example, has said that the “result is a risk for our country in view of the challenges we have to face” and Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire called it “democratic shock”. The “gilets jaunes” protests that rocked the country sporadically for over two years and now the rise of political forces opposed to globalisation make it clear that Macron and his party have not done enough to reach out to those who feel disenfranchised. Given the fragility of European unity, it is incumbent now to build alliances — social and political — for a stable France and Europe.

This editorial first appeared in the print edition on June 21, 2022 under the title ‘A jolt in Paris’.