Opinion Notwithstanding the results of the ongoing election, France under Emmanuel Macron has become more polarised

In 2017, Emmanuel Macron was a relative outsider who held out the hope that in France in particular, and in Europe as a whole, the centre would hold. After the first round of the presidential election earlier this week — the run-off poll between the president and leader of the far-right National Rally, Marine Le Pen, will take place on April 24 — it is clear that Macron’s term in office has only polarised the French polity further. Macron received around 28 per cent of the vote, Le Pen 23 per cent and the Left candidate, Jean-Luc Melenchon was a close third, with 22 per cent. Both the far-right and the left have gained ground. And while Melenchon’s call to his supporters to ensure that Le Pen does not gain the presidency may ensure that Macron becomes the first French presidential incumbent since Jacques Chiraq in 2002 to win a second term, his pro-market, pro-EU centre-right plank has fewer takers than before.

Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine is only the latest challenge to surface during Macron’s presidency. Domestically, the gilets jaunes or “yellow vests” protests against income inequality, price rise and tax breaks for the wealthy that rocked France began in 2018, and have flared sporadically ever since. The killing of school teacher Samuel Paty deepened another cleavage in French society and Macron announced a programme to “strengthen French values” and introduced laws that are seen to target Muslims. The rise of China and Britain’s exit from the EU have made it all the more important for France to take a leadership role in Europe. Unfortunately, the far-right — especially Le Pen — have made pro-Putin statements and continue to be sceptical of the EU and NATO. Macron has tilted right whenever he has been under siege politically. Given that he has made combating Putin’s Russia a policy priority, and his opponent has called for a “reset” of NATO-Russia relations, the election results will have far-reaching geopolitical implications.

Advertisement

Most opinion polls predict a close race between Le Pen and Macron in this election. Data also points to apathy with the political system as a whole and Macron in particular among the young and rural working classes. In 2017, Macron promised a centrist “revolution”. Now, his hope is to chip away supporters from both the right and left, by becoming the default candidate for those fearful of a xenophobic Le Pen presidency. Given the fragile European unity, and the need for an outward-looking France in that context, the election results on April 24 will be closely watched in Brussels and beyond.