Opinion Where the past and future collide

I am awed by the bravery of the Syrian and Egyptian youths. But I am deeply worried that the longer the fighting continues in Syria and Egypt,the less chance that any stable,democratising order will emerge anytime soon and the more likely that Syria could disintegrate into civil war. You can’t exaggerate how dangerous that would be.

Most Arab states implode. Syria explodes. Why? Because Syria is the keystone of the Levant. It borders and balances a variety of states,sects and ethnic groups. If civil war erupts there,every one of Syria’s neighbours will cultivate,and be cultivated by,different Syrian factions — Sunnis,Alawites,Kurds,Druse,Christians,pro-Iranians,pro-Hezbollahites,pro-Palestinians,pro-Saudis. Turkey,Lebanon,Hezbollah,Iraq,Iran,Hamas,Jordan,Saudi Arabia and Israel all have vital interests in who rules in Damascus. It will become a big Lebanon-like brawl.

Syria needs a peaceful democratic transition set in motion now. Ditto Egypt. But that is easier said than done. Events in both countries are a reminder of the multidimensional struggle for power across the Middle East — what I once described as the struggle between The Lexus and the Olive Tree.

This is a generational rupture. It is the old versus the young. It is the insiders (the adults) versus the outsiders (the youth). These young Egyptians,and Syrians,who have stopped fearing their military masters,are determined to unleash a true transformation in their world. But the weight of their history is so heavy. The new Lexus-like values of “democracy,” “free elections,” “citizen rights” and “modernity” will have to compete with some very old Olive Tree ideas and passions. These include the age-old civil wars between Sunnis and Shiites,the heated struggle between Salafists and modernists,as well as the ancient tribal and regional struggles playing out within each of these societies. Last,but not least,you have the struggle between the entrenched military/crony elites and the masses. These struggles from the “past” always threaten to rise up and bury “the future.”

This is the grand drama now being played out in the Arab world — the deeply sincere youth-led quest for liberty and the deeply rooted quests for sectarian,factional,class and tribal advantage. One day it looks as though the revolutions in Egypt,Syria and Tunisia are going to be hijacked by forces and passions from the past while the next day that longing of young people to be free and modern pushes them back.

The same drama played out in Iraq,but there the process was managed,at a huge cost,by an American midwife. We know,though,that there will be no impartial outside midwife to guide the transitions in Egypt,Syria,Tunisia,Libya and Yemen. Can they each make it without one? Only if they develop their own Nelson Mandelas — unique civic leaders or coalitions who can honour the past,and contain its volcanic urges,but not let it bury the future.