Opinion Unusual powers of persuasion

From India’s perspective,both Vajpayee and Manmohan Singh have operated on the basis that the best way for India to influence Pakistan is to do so through the US. At the time of Musharraf’s Kargil misadventure,US pressure did seem to work on at least some sections of the Pakistani government. In retrospect,that has begun to look like an isolated outlier. Currently,the American administration tells us that they are putting pressure on Pakistan to deal firmly with the conspirators behind the Mumbai attacks. But it does not seem to be working. Of course,the US administration could be lying to us and this would not be the first time that they have practiced terminological inexactitude. But watching Hillary Clinton on TV suggests to me that American pressure just won’t work.

The vast majority of Pakistanis hate and distrust their oldest ally. Every opinion poll conducted in that country comes up with this conclusion. Members of the Pakistani elite too are cynical about the US. They feel that successive American administrations have used them: Pakistani bases were used to spy on the Soviet Union during the Eisenhower days; in Nixon’s time,Pakistani troops were used by Jordan,an American client state,to fight Palestinians; Nixon and Kissinger used Pakistan as a conduit to Mao’s China; the Reagan administration used Pakistan to fight the Soviets in Afghanistan; today American drones casually violate Pakistani airspace killing Afghan terrorists and Pakistani civilians in equal measure. The result is that even the most “progressive” English-speaking,Scotch-drinking Pakistani leaders are almost viscerally anti-American. Of course,religious fundamentalists,who have continued to grow in numbers and influence over the last 60 years,view America as the Satan that seeks to corrupt the young and undermine their traditions. There is simply no pro-American constituency left in Pakistan. In political terms,being seen as succumbing to US pressure on Indo-Pak issues would not just be a mild vote-loser. It would be suicidal for any public figure in Pakistan.

India,on its own has very little influence in Pakistan. Candle-lit vigils at Wagah and maudlin ghazal-filled evenings cannot change the fact that Pakistanis view us as the neighbourhood bully who split their country some 40 years ago,and who still hangs on to pieces of geography that rightfully belong to Pakistan. The average Pakistani no doubt does not support terrorist attacks in Mumbai. But that does not mean that they are incensed about it. Many of them actually believe in wild conspiracy theories that imply that the Indian government is actively behind terrorist attacks in Lahore and Peshawar. Sympathy for India is at best limited. In this situation,why would any Pakistani leader ruin his domestic position by advocating cooperation with India? What then does India do? The question that has haunted all his predecessors,now rests with

Manmohan Singh. How can we have a modicum of influence on the policies and actions of our troubled neighbour? The question arises: if we cannot influence them,if the Americans won’t and for that matter,can’t bully them,where do we turn?

Eureka — two words,one country: Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia has tremendous credibility in Pakistan. The religious fundamentalists respect the Saudis as the original Wahabis; Saudi Arabia has in the past helped resolve tensions between Pakistani leaders like Musharraf and Nawaz Sharif; Pakistan respects the Saudi monarchy so much that the town of Lyallpur has been renamed Faisalabad in honour of a Saudi king; all Pakistani leaders need Saudi visas to make their pilgrimages to Mecca and Medina; the Saudis have pots of money which they are willing and able to use to further their interests.

Now we begin to understand why Manmohan Singh is the first Indian prime minister after Indira Gandhi to visit Saudi Arabia! Despite the tweeting controversy,it is clear that Saudi Arabia is a welcome “interlocutor” for us! As a high growth economy,we are a good place for the Saudis to invest their funds in equities. And Dr Singh has welcomed this. Over the next few years,if Saudi investment in India increases dramatically,as it should,they will automatically have a vested interest in India’s stability and will have an incentive to influence Pakistani leaders to tread the path of reason. Given that the Saudis are credible in Pakistan,they actually do make for good interlocutors (again that word!),which the Americans no longer are. Dr Singh’s next stop should be Beijing. China too has credibility with Pakistan!

The writer divides his time between Mumbai and Bangalore