Opinion Tripoli’s challenge

What began on March 13 reached a critical moment less than a week ago when the eastern town of Zawiyah,a mere 46 km from the capital,fell to the rebels. Zawiyah is crucial: it is the only guaranteed source of gasoline for Tripoli and Gaddafi’s supporters. Its fall and the flight of government soldiers paved the way for the rebels’ entry into Tripoli.

The National Transitional Council (NTC),the government-in-waiting,sent out,perhaps a little hastily,mass text messages: “We congratulate the Libyan people for the fall of Muammar Gaddafi. Long live free Libya.” This,when the government spokesperson,holed up in the Hotel Rixos,claimed that the eccentric leader still commanded 65,000 soldiers. France,the torchbearer of this operation,offered words of celebration and Paris as the location for the Friends of Libya meeting that would discuss reconstruction of a country wrecked by six months of civil war and 42 years of Gaddafi rule. In several Libyan embassies,the NTC flag was hoisted.

But where is Gaddafi? His last public appearance was in May but since then a stream of audio messages has been flowing out. In the past few days,these have picked up pace. “Pick up your weapons,” he asked his supporters as Tripoli came under attack on August 15. Less than 14 hours later,another message came through,this time for tribal leaders to join the fight against the rebels and finally in the penultimate address for the night,he asked,enraged,“If Tripoli was to burn like Baghdad,why would you allow this to happen?”

Yet he remains ominously absent from public view. Some postulate he is on the run,attempting to cross over to Algeria; there are reports of South African planes that may or may not fly him out; he could hide in Malta or Venezuela. There are rumours that he’s in the Libyan Desert.

Here is what we do know: as the rebels crossed into Tripoli at an astonishing speed,they were aided by an intensification of the air campaign,with Nato strike missions attacking key targets. This was decisive in shifting the balance. Britain and France played a role on the ground in training and arming the rebels who soldiered forward. This not only gobbled up Libya’s military infrastructure but also rendered the Colonel’s forces weak and unable to move or re-supply.

But are celebrations and the news of the fall of Tripoli premature? Most foreign correspondents are still in lockdown in the Libyan capital,except perhaps for Sky News’s Alex Crawford who is riding with the rebels in Tripoli. So information coming out has been spotty and scattered. And the course of the battle,of the endgame,is far from clear.

Here is what we do know. Whatever the outcome of the war,the NTC will face tremendous challenges in uniting the rebels. First,there is the question of the eastern tribes. Gaddafi has favoured the western tribes and suppressed the eastern tribes. How will the NTC,a largely eastern outfit,bring the remainder of the tribes into its fold? Though the NTC is made up of West-leaning intellectuals,businessmen and the odd Islamist,how will the outfit unite a country that has no public institutions,no experience at the ballot box and no political parties?

Further,Gaddafi,a master manipulator,kept his power by agreements with the Megraha and Warfalla tribes. These tribes,located in the east and the south,have remained loyal to him,and have already extracted their revenge. Then there are tribes,like the Gaddafa,that were recipients of his patronage. How will the new government,the NTC,rebalance the distribution of power?

In the videos coming from Benghazi,men in plainclothes fought in the most violent of the Arab Spring in Libya. The question is,will they wear one uniform when the sole target of their anger is eliminated?

express@expressindia.com