Opinion Tibet anniversaries

China has also stepped up security along the border with Nepal,where nearly 20,000 Tibetan refugees live. Since the Lhasa riots in March 2008,Beijing’s relentless pressure has compelled Nepal to crack down on all possible sources of cross-border support to the autonomy movement inside Tibet.

Beyond the imperatives of getting through this week without any major incidents in Tibet,Chinese President Hu Jintao has reaffirmed the strategy of promoting economic development and political stability in Tibet.

The Chinese Communist Party and the government in Beijing have always paid special attention at the highest possible levels to the economic and political situation in Tibet. Since 1980 Beijing has organised special forums aimed at giving a measure of purposefulness to the party and governmental work in Tibet.

The report of the Fifth Forum on Tibet which met earlier this year underlined the progress achieved since the fourth report that was issued in 2001. The report says that the national government has invested about $46 billion in Tibet since 2001 and the gross domestic product of the region has posted an annual growth rate of 12 per cent during the last decade.

This impressive growth picture is,of course,is based on low base figures; but there is no denying the dramatic economic transformation of Tibet in recent years. Sceptics would,however,argue that economic growth does not always buy political love and point to the fact that the Lhasa riots two years ago underline the enduring political tension in Tibet.

Autonomy talks

Quite aware of its vulnerabilities in Tibet,the CCP has acted vigorously during the last decade to remove them. Part of that strategy had been a direct engagement with the representatives of the Dalai Lama and his exiled government based in Dharmashala.

After the ninth round conducted earlier this year,it is quite evident that China has all the cards and the Tibetans not too many. In a recent report on the talks so far,delivered at a think tank in Washington last week,the principal Tibetan negotiator,Lodi Gyari,pointed to the extraordinary difficulties that Dharmashala has had in getting Beijing to accept any of its demands.

The Chinese don’t even acknowledge the existence of a “Tibetan issue” and have rejected the Dalai Lama’s repeated assertions that he is not seeking Tibet’s separation from China and commitment to seek a shared future with the Chinese with the People’s Republic.

The disagreement between the Dalai Lama and the CCP envelops all major issues — the geographic definition of what constitutes Tibet,its historical political relationship with China,and the meaning and scope of the autonomy sought by the Dalai Lama for his people.

Shrinking options

As China became stronger by the year during the last decade and is well on its way to become a superpower,it is not clear how the Tibetans can nudge Beijing towards a settlement that meets even the minimal goals of the Dalai Lama.

One way is to appeal to the higher sensibilities of the CCP leadership. As Gyari argued,China can’t become a superpower only “through military and economic strength”. “Moral authority is a very important condition,” Gyari insisted and added that this can be “imparted by the Tibetan Buddhist culture”.

China’s growing weight on the international stage has undermined the essence of the Dalai Lama’s political strategy during the last two decades — to mobilise Western pressure on China to accommodate Tibetan aspirations.

In the past,Beijing was willing to make a few gestures to get the US and the West to get off its back on Tibet. In the last couple of years,Beijing had made it absolutely clear that it will not make any compromises on Tibet. This puts the ball back in the court of the Dalai Lama who must now consider alternative approaches to get Beijing’s attention. Therefore his speech on Wednesday marking the 51st anniversary of the 1959 uprising will be heard with some interest.