Opinion The turnaround story
Just months before elections,Nitish is losing the upper castes who swept him to power
Nitish Kumar is basking in the glory of Bihars brilliant turnaround,which made national and international headlines. The state averaged a miraculous annual growth of 11.03 per cent next only to Gujarat (11.05 per cent).
But developments in the state since then have been no less amazing. The chief minister is facing a sudden surge of rebellion from his flock. State Janata Dal (United) president Lalan Singh resigned from his post,accusing Kumar of running the party and the government like an autocrat. Lalans rebellion surprised everyone as he was known to be Nitishs closest aide so much so that the Opposition projected him as the symbol of upper caste hegemony in the government.
Lalans revolt threatens to destabilise Nitish with elections only months ahead. Other upper caste leaders in the JD(U) are tacitly backing him. Some local newspapers that sang paeans to Nitish till recently have started publishing stories of scams targeting his office. One of his ministers,Excise Minister Jamshed Ashraf,has alleged a Rs 500 crore-scam in his department and claimed the chief ministers office was involved in the swindle. On Thursday,the CM sacked Ashraf. Just ahead of the elections,men once closest to Nitish are hunting for his head.
The revolt by the upper caste leaders,identified with the government,is said to be a result of Nitishs arrogance and autocratic style. But it has a larger social significance too. Coincidently,as chief minister,Lalu Prasad Yadav faced a similar rebellion just as he geared up for re-election in 1995. At that time,it was Nitish who led the revolt,backed by the same upper caste leaders. George Fernandes,Nitish,Lalan,Shivanand Tiwari and some others broke away from Lalu to form the Samata Party. Lalu won hands down; Nitish faced a humiliating defeat. But what followed was the infamous multi-crore fodder scam,with Lalan and Tiwari being the main movers in the case.
Mandalisation in the early 1990s pushed the upper castes to the fringes in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. After his initial attempts with the ultra left CPI-ML (Liberation) failed,Nitish,leading the oust-Lalu campaign,found a friend in the BJP. The upper castes saw Nitish as someone who could defeat Lalu. Nitish just missed the bus in 2000 and in February 2005. But in November the same year,when Bihar went to the polls after a short span of central rule,Nitish decimated Lalu.
Aware that he owed his victory more to the backward classes than the upper castes,Nitish set out to consolidate his base. He began by reserving 20 per cent seats in panchayats for the Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs). Comprising over 100 castes and about 30 per cent of the population,the EBCs were deprived of their share in the political pie. Nitish also wooed the Muslim backwards,85 per cent of the communitys population. Next was his idea of Mahadalits or the deprived Scheduled Castes. The chief minister aimed at building a formidable support base of backwards minus Yadavs (Lalu),Dalits minus Paswans (Ram Vilas Paswan) and the majority of Muslims.
Nitish practised this social engineering silently,always keeping the larger agenda of development on the forefront. But it was only a matter of time before the upper castes,who used to call the shots in Bihar till 1990,turned uneasy. Aware that Nitish was fast nibbling at their traditional support base,the opposition led by the Rashtriya Janata Dal,accused him of playing into the hands of the upper castes. They projected Lalan as a symbol of this.
Wily politician that Nitish is,he couldnt have let the charge stick. He began distancing himself from the upper caste leaders close to him and cut the strings they used to pull in the government. Unease turned into anger when an official commission on land reforms recommended granting rights to share-croppers. Though Nitish clarified that the government had not accepted the recommendations,the fear of losing their land gripped the upper castes. In the subsequent by-elections,the JD(U)-BJP fared badly.
It is a mystery why Nitish made the commissions report public. Some say he didnt expect upper castes to oppose it so vociferously. Others feel he couldnt have been so naïve,and the move was aimed at further consolidating the EBC and Dalit voter.
When Lalan quit,Nitish remained defiant and consciously avoided a compromise. As elections approach,the chief minister seems to be making his backward lurch more pronounced. It was evident when,in his presence,anti-upper caste slogans rent the air during the birth anniversary function of backward leader Jagdeo Prasad,who was killed in the 1970s.
Nitish seems confident that he can stage a comeback even if the upper castes,who account for 15 per cent of the population,desert him. If his gamble succeeds,he would achieve what Lalu did. Nitish,people close to him say,is certain that at least 40 per cent of the electorate backwards and Dalits- are solidly behind him. The upper caste leaders rubbish this; Nitish should understand,they say,that EBCs and Mahadalits are still dependent on the affluent forward castes for their livelihood and thereby need their backing to cast votes. Upper castes,who had their choice limited to Lalu and Nitish,now have the Congress. Nitish realises this and so his call to the backwards is getting shriller by the day.
Bihar is headed towards a gripping electoral battle that would impact national politics. For the BJP trying to recover after the Lok Sabha defeat it would be the first major test in the Hindi heartland. The Congress possible resurgence will be keenly watched. If Nitish continues to bat for the backwards,his ally BJP could get marginalised and that would mean the strengthening of the Congress. Above all,Bihar will test the relevance of a regional leader who has performed amidst talk of the return of national parties.
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