Opinion The Great Game Folio

Just when American liberals thought they had buried ‘regime change’ as a foreign policy strategy by throwing the Republicans out of the White House,they are now paralysed by the prospect of political change in Iran.

As protestors keep coming back to the streets of Tehran and other cities across Iran despite the harsh repression,the Obama administration is now torn between difficult options. Should he stay with the obsessive emphasis on the nuclear question or should he refocus to support Iran’s democratic forces?

Bush tried doing both,and failed. One of Obama’s first foreign policy initiatives was to wave an olive branch at Tehran. In return Obama hoped that Tehran would offer major nuclear concessions. Iran hasn’t,at least until now.

In statecraft,timing is everything and Obama was unfortunate to get it wrong. At precisely the moment he started calling Tehran regime the ‘Islamic Republic of Iran’,the people of Iran refused to accept the results of the presidential election they believe was stolen from the opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi.

With the Supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei refusing to accommodate the opposition in any form,the protestors have gone beyond the allegations of electoral fraud. They are now challenging the very legitimacy of the regime led by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Regime change in Iran,however,may not come peacefully. Thirty odd years ago,when Iranian people challenged the monarchy in protests much like those we see today,the Shah of Iran vacillated about cracking down hard. He abdicated and left in 1979 clearing the way for the Islamic Revolution.

Khamenei and his supporters,however,might hold on to the bitter end. Nor will the protestors give up. They seem to have overcome that most important barrier against any mass rebellion — fear. Expect many political twists and turns in Tehran this year against a backdrop of popular protests.

Meanwhile,the Iranian civil war is likely to overshadow all else in the region. If and when it does occur,a regime change in Tehran will dramatically alter the calculations of all the major powers and regional actors on both sides of the Persian Gulf—in Afghanistan and Pakistan to the east and the Arab world to the west.

Army doctrine

Why is Pakistan reacting so violently to the Indian Army doctrine that was reportedly outlined by Gen. Deepak Kapoor? None of the elements referred to by Gen. Kapoor — reducing the mobilisation time,preparing for conflict on two fronts,joint operations,technological modernisation,developing the capacity to deal with asymmetric threats,and planning for ‘out of area’ operations — would have come as a surprise to the Pak GHQ in Rawalpindi.

Nevertheless the organisation of a high-pitched campaign against Gen.Kapoor suggests a few possible motivations. One is that Gen. Kapoor is a useful diversion at a time when the Obama administration is mounting pressure on the Pak Army to take on the Afghan Taliban and its friends operating in Balochistan and North Waziristan.

After the recent bold attack on the CIA post on the Pak-Afghan border,the patience in Washington may be wearing thin. The commander of the international forces in Afghanistan,Gen. Stanley McChrystal is in Pakistan this week demanding joint operations against the Afghan Taliban. The ‘India threat’ is also a useful device for Rawalpindi to sustain the heat against the civilians in Islamabad.

Zardari on Kashmir

By the time this column went to press,there were no reports on President Asif Ali Zardari’s scheduled speech on Kashmir Tuesday. In the aftermath of the elections that brought the PPP to power,Zardari got into trouble with the Army by saying improving trade with India might be more urgent than resolving the Kashmir question. That seems a long time ago.

As he fights for his political life now,Zardari has come out swinging against his adversaries in the last few days. His remarks about non-state actors and other dark forces undermining the elected government have generated some political heat. Until now,Zardari has shown considerable restraint in his statements on India. But in occupied Kashmir on ‘Pakistan solidarity day’,Zardari might have little flexibility.

The writer is Henry A Kissinger Chair in Foreign Policy and International Relations at the Library of Congress,Washington DC.