Opinion The GREAT GAME Folio

In an important reflection on the war in Afghanistan,the US defence secretary,Robert Gates has said that the American people are tired of the war in Afghanistan and will not support a prolonged occupation of that country.

Sections of the Pakistan press have interpreted this to mean that the US strategic commitment to Afghanistan is of limited duration and Islamabad must prepare for the withdrawal of the American troops in the not too distant future.

Many American analysts too have criticised this approach as defeatist. In signalling the desire for an early exit,they say,the Pentagon undermines the very prospect of its success.

If the Afghan Taliban and its Pakistani friends are convinced that the US troops will leave sooner than later,they will have every incentive to ride through the current American surge and avoid any interim political settlement.

This reading of the Gates’ interview to the Los Angeles Times is right; but only in part. It is important to note the secretary’s observation that Washington will review its Afghan strategy next summer.

The Obama administration might be able to sustain domestic political support for the war in Afghanistan,Gates believes,only if the current military campaign can produce a visible turn around in the ground situation.

“If we can show progress,and we are headed in the right direction,and we are not in a stalemate where we are taking significant casualties,then you can put more time on the Washington clock,” Gates said.

With Congressional elections due in November 2010,President Obama would not want to be trapped in an Afghan quagmire. Put another way,as Washington’s political clock ticks,the next year is going to be ‘make-or-break’ for Washington in Afghanistan.

Delhi’s triangulation

As Washington throws all it can into Afghanistan in the next few months,India must be prepared for all possible outcomes and be nimble enough to adapt and protect its own high stakes in the North Western marches of the subcontinent.

India’s war on terrorism,the prospects for the resumption of a purposeful Indo-Pak dialogue,and Delhi’s long-term engagement with Kabul are all now tied to the US war in Afghanistan and how it unfolds. Seen from this context,India’s recent decisions to probe the political possibilities with Pakistan and deepen the strategic partnership with the United States fall into a pattern.

Those who quibble over words in India’s recent diplomacy with Pakistan and the United States may be missing Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s attempt to triangulate the relationship with Washington and Islamabad to Delhi’s advantage. The long joint statement issued at the end of the US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s visit to India does not refer to either Afghanistan or Pakistan. That does not mean the issues did not figure prominently in the conversation between Clinton and her Indian interlocutors. Sometimes what they don’t say in joint statements is more important than what they do.

Pakistan’s troika

As Washington turns up the heat in the Af-Pak theatre and Delhi experiments with triangulation,Pakistan’s own power troika — involving President Asif Ali Zardari,Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani,and Army Chief Gen. Ashfaq Kayani — is showing some interesting dynamism.

Whenever civilians are allowed to rule Pakistan,they are subjected to triangulation by the army which temporarily withdraws into the back office. The army chief,however,retains his primacy by playing off the civilian leaders against each other.

The civilian fall for this unfailingly. Although he might have been chosen by Zardari to be the PM,Gilani seems to have been seduced by the army into turning against the president. Gilani’s many assertive statements in the last few days have not gone unnoticed by Pakistan’s observers. Zardari’s attempt to end his estrangement with former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif seems part of an emerging political realignment.

Pakistan is one country where external relations meld effortlessly into domestic politics. As the Great Game acquires a new intensity on Pakistan’s borders,its internal political equations too might evolve rapidly in the coming months.

The writer is a Professor at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies,Nanyang Technological University,Singapore.