Prime Minister Manmohan Singhs visit to Japan as part of a three-nation tour is intended to underline Indias growing role in the region and acknowledge Japans crucial part in the emerging security environment in the Asia-Pacific. During the PMs visit,the two states will be signing a visa pact allowing Japanese workers to live and work in India for three years,a declaration on biodiversity,and a political declaration confirming the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) in principle. The fact that the long-awaited CEPA will again be deferred signifies the drift that has set in,in India-Japan ties.
For Japan,embroiled in its domestic political instability and economic drift,India has not been a top priority in recent months. Indian bureaucracy has also been unwilling to push the economic pacts important to signal seriousness towards Japan. Manmohan Singh had to intervene personally to ensure that some of the agreements were in place before his visit.
This is a crucial period of strategic flux in Asia and there is much that India and Japan can accomplish together. Indias ties with Japan have travelled a long way since May 1998,when a chill set in following Indias nuclear tests. Japan imposed sanctions and suspended its Overseas Development Assistance. Since then,however,the changing strategic milieu in Asia-Pacific has brought the two countries together,so much so that the Indian prime ministers last visit to Japan resulted in a roadmap to transform a low-key relationship into a major strategic partnership. But ground realities are rapidly changing in Asia,and India and Japan need to respond more pro-actively.
Chinas rise is the most significant variable in the Asian geostrategic landscape today and both India and Japan would like to see a constructive China playing a larger role in the solving of regional and global problems rather than becoming a problem itself. Concerns are rising for both states,about Chinas assertive diplomatic and military posture,as exemplified in the wake of a collision between a Chinese fishing boat and Japanese Coast Guard vessels near the Senakaku Island and rising tensions on the Sino-Indian border areas. Chinas attempts to test the diplomatic and military mettle of its neighbours will only bring Japan and India closer. While New Delhi and Tokyo would like greater transparency and restraint on Beijings part,there is now a need for them to be more candid about their expectations.
Given the likelihood that the US navys presence in South China Sea might shrink in the coming years because of economic constraints,Japan should encourage a larger role for the Indian navy there,even as there is an urgent need for the Japanese Self Defence Forces to expand their presence in the Indian Ocean. Greater bilateral defence cooperation,including joint development and production of defence equipment,is the need of the hour. It would be even more productive if the US is also involved in Japan-India military exercises so that a broader regional security framework can be nurtured.
Economic ties too need serious attention. Though the Japanese investment in India has crossed the $3.7 billion mark,much remains to be done. The Delhi-Mumbai corridor remains a centrepiece of India-Japan cooperation in the infrastructure sector. Japan is also supporting the new IIT in Hyderabad,laying the foundation for academic exchanges and collaboration between the higher educational institutions of the two states. The Japanese governments New Growth Strategy is aimed at developing emerging markets like India through infrastructure deals combining public financing and private sector investment.
Regional institutions in Asia also need strengthening,and active US involvement in ASEAN and ARF has been welcomed by member states. India should work towards enhancing its profile in regional institutions. Yet the hub and spokes of US alliances will continue to define the regional security architecture in the region. At the global level,the two sides want to re-energise the G-4 grouping that is pushing for UN reform,particularly expansion of the Security Council and inclusion of new permanent members.
The talks on the civilian nuclear pact seem to be going nowhere at the moment. Japan continues to insist that India sign the NPT and the CTBT whereas India has no intention of doing so,given its longstanding concerns regarding the discriminatory nature of these treaties. Given the involvement of Japanese firms in the US and French nuclear industries,an Indo-Japanese pact is essential if US and French civilian nuclear cooperation with India is to be realised. Japanese approval is needed if GE-Hitachi and Toshiba-Westinghouse are to sell nuclear reactors to India. Meanwhile,the new liability law in India could make greater civilian nuclear cooperation between Japan and India difficult to accomplish.
Delhi and Tokyo need to urgently assess the implications of their lacklustre ties and get serious about remedying this situation. Otherwise,it might just get too late.
The writer teaches at Kings College,London express@expressindia.com
