Opinion Saudis and Pakistan

American columnist David Ignatius,who has impeccable contacts in the Pakistan army,has confirmed the effort underway to draft Saudi and ISI support for it. Under the tentative plan,as revealed by Ignatius,Saudi Arabia “would invite relatives of the two men Davis killed to the Gulf. Payment to the victims’ families could then be negotiated quietly. Once the next of kin had agreed to this settlement,the legal case against Davis for murder might be moot in a Pakistani court.”

If the Saudis do ride in for the rescue,it will not be the first time. After General Pervez Musharraf ousted Nawaz Sharif in a coup in October 1999 and locked him up in prison,the Saudis stepped in to provide asylum to the deposed prime minister. When Nawaz Sharif broke the political understanding not to return to Pakistan for a decade and landed in a Pakistani airport,a Saudi plane was on the tarmac to fly him back.

When the US was cutting a deal with Musharraf to let the exiled Benazir Bhutto back,the Saudis injected Sharif back into Pakistani politics. The Saudis have no love for Zardari — a WikiLeaks cable from January 2009 quotes Saudi King Abdullah as saying that Zardari was a “rotten head” that was “infecting the whole body of Pakistan”. If the Saudis do step in,it is not to help Zardari,but as a favour to the Pakistan army and the United States.

Saudis and Gaddafi

The reputed British reporter on the Middle East,Robert Fisk,has written that the Obama administration is asking Saudi Arabia to supply arms to the rebels in Libya fighting to save the territory they gained in recent weeks from the powerful counter-attacks by forces loyal to Muammar Gaddafi.

There is not much love lost between the utterly conservative House of Saud and the terribly maverick Gaddafi. At an Arab League meeting at Doha in March 2009,Gaddafi abused King Abdullah. “You are always lying and you’re facing the grave and you were made by Britain and protected by the United States,” Gaddafi told the Saudi monarch. Before the microphone was cut off,the Libyan leader declared,“I am an international leader,the dean of the Arab rulers,the king of kings of Africa and the imam of all Muslims and my international status does not allow me to descend to a lower level.”

The House of Saud might certainly want to oust Gaddafi,but is also said to be angry with Obama for abandoning Hosni Mubarak in Egypt. King Abdullah’s fears that the Arab revolution will eventually engulf his own kingdom have turned out to be true.

Obama badly needs Saudi help in Libya. Amidst mounting pressures at home to act against Gaddafi,Obama will need to put an Arab face to whatever he does in Libya. On its part,Saudi Arabia appears to have delivered a statement from the Gulf Arab states to support a no-fly zone over Libya. King Abdullah,however,wants Obama to stop supporting the Arab revolution in Bahrain especially — Saudi Arabia’s staunch ally and close neighbour — where a Shia majority is confronting minority Sunni rule.

The Wall Street Journal reports that Obama is all ears,and has settled on a differentiated policy towards the Arab revolutions. He will now apparently back “regime change” against adversaries like Gaddafi,while urging friendly rulers in Bahrain and Morocco to begin “regime reform”.

Ides of March

The first test of Obama’s “nuanced” approach to the Arab spring could come as early as this week. There have been calls to observe a “day of rage” this Friday in Saudi Arabia.

The demands for change in the insular kingdom have come from both Shias and Sunnis. In recent weeks,there have been small protests by minority Shia in eastern Saudi Arabia,home to much of the Saudi oil resources. Reform-minded Sunni intellectuals have also petitioned the king for political reform. The kingdom is on high alert this week,after banning protests and getting the clergy to declare them “un-Islamic”,and warn that they could fan “sedition”. If significant protests do occur in the kingdom,the Arab revolt would have crossed a very big red line.