Opinion Just an opinion

Let us address these one by one. How can the opinions of a small fraction of voters tell the mood of a vast and diverse country? It sounds counterintuitive,but the accuracy of the estimate,based on a survey done properly,depends on the sample size and not the population size. This can be proven mathematically and is based on counting the number of samples where the proportion is close to that of the population. Of course,the operative part is a properly done survey. If the agency cuts corners,the estimate could be close to the true figure,but it could also be far off.

As for opinion polls influencing vo­t­ers,they probably do. I have da­ta that makes me think so. In ev­e­ry poll that we do (the CSDS poll,ba­sed on a methodology worked out in consultation with me),we ask the res­p­ondent whom they voted for in the previous el­ection. We have found that,inv­a­riably,the recall for whoever won the last election is much higher,ev­en when our estimate for the cu­r­rent round is very good. Thus,in West Bengal in 2011,over 70 per cent respond­e­n­ts recalled having voted for the Le­ft Front in 2006 (whose actual vote share was about 50 per cent),even though they were going to vote for the Trinamool Congress this time.

Over the years,ee have observ­ed this across the country. It points to voters’ tendency to identify with the winner. So,there could be a tendency to vote for whoever is being projected as the winner. But there is another effect: complacency. Some believe that people were so convinced in 2004 that the NDA would win that several supporters did not bother to go out and vote. This may or may not be true,but I do feel opinion polls have an influence. However,that is no reason to ban them. Experts’ views on TV channels,campaign news and newspaper editorials also influence voters.

If the demand for a ban emanates from the apprehension that opinion polls could be manipulated,the same applies to expert opinions,reports and editorials. Since we do not ban these,why should opinion polls be banned? If such a ban is imposed,one wonders if a reporter would be prevented from writing about polls done privately. For example,a highly reliable source could tell her a private poll commissioned by a corporate house says CKQ party is winning hands down. Betting is illegal in India,yet newspapers write about the odds offered on a cricket match,without giving names and addresses of the booki­es. Betting on an electoral outc­o­me is a huge market too,and ma­i­n­stream newspapers often report on the odds being offered on a ca­n­didate winning or a party get­t­ing a majority. Would the law ban ne­w­spapers from doing this? And can su­ch a ban be enforced? Indian news channels can be prevented from airing such content,as they are governed by stiff laws on uplin­k­ing of newsfeeds. But what is to pr­ev­ent,say,the BBC or CNN from ai­ring the findings of such a surv­e­y­?

A question remains: why have opinion polls at all? The answer to this lies beyond predictions on winners and losers. Only an opinion poll can tell why people voted the way they did. The CSDS has been doing such polls to understand the voter’s mind. This alone can give social scientists an insight into issues that are important and how different socio-economic groups are voting. For example,the nuclear treaty,for which the Left withdrew ­support to UPA 1,was a non-issue to the general public. Also,about 5 to 7 per cent of Muslims have been voting for the BJP over the last two decades.

An outright ban is a bad idea. However,all media should come together and agree on some norms,such as disclosure of methodology and other transparency measures. Perhaps the Press Council of India can play a lead role in this.

The writer is director,Chennai Mathematical Institute

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