Opinion Is survival a strategy?

I recall cautioning people against this assumption. My reasoning was that these commentators did not realise that at its core,Congress considers itself to be a Left party. It was never happy with the reforms which had happened in the short interval while the Nehru-Gandhi family was absent at the top. The reformers were technocrats with a fragile political base. After all,no political party in India has wholeheartedly championed reforms—neither Congress nor BJP. Chandrababu Naidu was the pinup boy of the World Bank but his electoral fortunes were treated as a warning. Too much selling of reforms was bad politics. Reform is a love which dare not speak its name or flaunt its presence. It must appear stealthily in the night while no one is looking.

Yet,UPA-II has been bad for Congress’s political fortunes. At its outset,one thought that with 206 seats in May 2009,Congress would swallow up the smaller coalition partners like NCP or TMC,which were after all breakaway groups from the mother party. With Rahul there,the succession was assured for decades ahead. The result has been the other way around. Both NCP and TMC have distanced themselves from Congress and intimidated it from within. The tail has wagged the dog.

Both the major national parties have shrunk in terms of the states they rule over. Congress is out of UP,Bihar,West Bengal,Punjab to list only the larger states in the North. It has not had Tamil Nadu since 1967. It has lost Orissa and Karnataka and is just about hanging on in Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra. The BJP has Gujarat,Karnataka,Madhya Pradesh and then shares in Punjab and Bihar. Large chunks of the country have seceded from the two main parties.

If Congress merely means to survive till 2014 at the Centre,there is real danger to its longer run success. Its organisation has collapsed in many states as the elections in UP and Bihar showed. Rahul Gandhi’s charm was not enough to compensate for a lack of ground staff. Even now there are vacant posts at the PCC level across the country. Congress long ago abandoned any reliance on local elections to choose Pradesh leaders. It has been top down for many years in the way local leaders are chosen. You are better off waiting in the ante rooms in Delhi than working at the grassroots.

Yet such a party can only thrive if it goes on winning elections. Power from above can be wielded only if there is a sweetener of patronage. If Congress were to fail to come to power at the Centre,it is very likely that new offshoots would go independent just as NCP and TMC did. If power can be captured at the state level by ‘doing a Mamata’,then the outcome is predictable after 2014. More local Congress parties will be created all using the word Congress somewhere in their titles. For the BJP,the same story will apply. It has also abandoned local elections for choosing regional leaders. Narendra Modi would be better off ‘doing a Mamata’ if he fails to win his desired spot at the top. These divisive tendencies arise due to leaders abandoning any idea of listening to local people. Top down rule always fails. Read India’s history.