Opinion Good luck Yingluck

Thai politics of the past 10 years has been dominated by one name: Shinawatra. At first,it was the brother and his populist policies that struck a chord with the impoverished Thais. It was he who challenged the Bangkok elite,went head-to-head with the revered king and the mighty army. It was also he who embezzled the country and faces a raft of criminal charges.

But somewhere in between teleconferencing with her brother,who is in self-imposed exile in Dubai,and self-tutoring in politics,the other Shinawatra,Yingluck,came into her own. She travelled across the country: in the north,she asked the people to love her like they did her brother; in the south,she promised progress despite their differences. In the race,the then PM Abhisit Vejjajiva looked distinctly uncomfortable with the people,unaccustomed to the masses.

But they have both brought to Thailand something novel: the semblance of a democratic process. The Thaksin mandate of populist policies — equitable wealth distribution,minimum wages and incentives to small businesses — has been emulated by the opposition. They have also made another promise: to go beyond Bangkok.

Unfortunately,Thailand’s recent politics has been about control over Bangkok. The political system has been suspended time and again for street battles between the Red Shirts and the Yellow Shirts. If the Red Shirts weren’t staging a protest,the Yellow Shirts were shutting down the airport — street warfare had overtaken political debate. So on Sunday,when the cheering Red Shirts were not met with resistance from the royalist Yellow Shirts on the streets of Bangkok,one had reasons to wonder: has Thailand entered a new era of politics? Is this actual progress?

Yes and no. Yes,because Shinawatra’s Pheu Thai party has formed an alliance with five major parties,and Vejjajiva promises to form a genuine opposition. The army,the hand that rocks the cradle of Thai politics,has accepted the defeat of its affiliated party and has gone as far as congratulating the new PM. But Thai politics is never quite as simple.

Forty years of constitutional neglect,of coups at the whims and fancies of Bangkok’s elite and its power over the army have led to a curious civil-military relationship. Though the situation seems at ease now,the question of Thaksin’s return is sounded often. Will Yingluck grant him amnesty? Will he return — after all,it is he who has gone in exile?

Thaksin’s return would,of course,be a politically polarising development. Traditionally,in such situations,the monarch becomes the arbiter of Thailand’s woes. Last year,King Bhumibol spoke out when law and order crumbled in the country. He is respected and adored by most Thais,but there is cause for worry: he is 83,unwell and has not appointed an heir.

Yingluck,one should recall,is not the first Thaksin affiliate to come to power. Two other governments — of Samak Sundaravej and of Thaksin’s brother-in-law Somchai Wongsawat — had been in power after Thaksin’s exit. They were swiftly ousted on dubious charges: Sundaravej lost his job because he used to host a cookery show and Wongsawat was forced to step down after being accused of electoral fraud. It was during these two governments that the king intervened to restore law and order. The question in Thai politics is: who will have such sway over the army and the people after Bhumibol?

Politics in Thailand is far from consistent,the military too influential and Bangkok’s elite too interfering. Thailand does enter a new phase though and this will be further stabilised by the appointment of an heir.

alia.allana@expressindia.com