Opinion From Supreme Court judgments to Karnataka verdict, the BJP’s week of horrors

The big story, however, is the Karnataka assembly election results. The BJP, which had formed a government in 2019 with defectors from the Congress and the Janata Dal(S), suffered a heavy defeat. Its seat tally fell from 104 in 2018 to 66 while the Congress gained 55 seats to finish at 135 in a House of 224 MLAs. Most of the defectors lost the election this time. However, despite the massive loss of seats, the BJP has maintained a 36 per cent vote share, the same as in 2018, while the Congress gained 5 per cent votes to finish with 43 per cent votes.

There are several strands in the verdict.

One, it is an anti-incumbency vote. The BJP could not counter the allegation that it ran a “40 per cent commission government” in Karnataka.

Two, the Congress ran a spirited campaign, with the two big local faces, former CM Siddaramaiah and party head D K Shivakumar, working together. That the Congress national president is a mass leader from the state helped: Mallikarjun Kharge’s appeal extends beyond the Dalit political sphere. Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatra with its message to shun hate politics made an impression on people and energised the party cadre.

Three, the BJP central leadership’s attempts to control the unit on its terms may have upset the party’s social base. Under B S Yediyurappa, the BJP had built itself as a Lingayat-plus-other-Hindus party. His fall from grace and the apparent sidelining of some Lingayat leaders created the impression that the party wanted to rewire its structure. It didn’t work.

Four, the belief that Brand Modi can subdue all exigencies and win any election is misplaced. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah led a polarising campaign, perhaps believing that a hardline Hindutva agenda could shift the focus away from poor governance and other civic issues. Voters make a clear distinction between assembly polls and the general election: They are well aware that the prime minister is not the one who will run the state government. The BJP ought to have known this since the PM-centric campaign did not work in Himachal Pradesh in December last year. Barring in parts of coastal Karnataka and Bengaluru, the BJP failed to hold onto its seats.

Five, South India is yet to fall for the charm of the BJP’s unitarian politics that is premised on faith-centric hyper-nationalism and welfare. Southern states perfected a welfare model long before the BJP discovered the uses of “freebies” and have built a robust social security net. The Congress government under Siddaramaiah (2013-18) had introduced a slew of welfare schemes. This time the Congress manifesto promised more. Importantly, the big southern states — Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, and Kerala — are extremely sensitive to their sub-nationalist identity. This linguistic identity is not at all variance with a federal national identity. However, it can come alive if any attempt is made to privilege the national over the local. Kannada sub-nationalism may not be vocal like Tamil sub-nationalism, but linguistic identity is very much a defining feature of Karnataka’s polity. This is true not just for Karnataka, but for all southern states. The Congress smartly used this plank against the BJP. Controversies such as the one over the Nandini (milk) brand became handy in this campaign.

Six, the civil society in Karnataka actively worked against the BJP. It helped to shape the public opinion against the party.

Seven, the BJP’s record in communal politics was put under the spotlight. The murders of Gauri Lankesh and M M Kalburgi had revealed the rise of extremist Hindutva forces in the state. In the past few months, the state was roiled as the Hindu right, with support from the government, campaigned against hijab, halal and Muslim traders at temple festivals and so on. PM Modi endorsing the controversial anti-Muslim propaganda film, Kerala Story, to invoking Bajrang Bali in response to the Congress clubbing the Sangh outfit with the banned Islamist group, the People Front of India, were in line with the ongoing polarisation politics. This was not successful. The Muslim vote, which would be shared between the Congress and the JD(S), seems to have consolidated behind the Congress. The fall in JD(S) votes has benefited the Congress this time. Muslims constitute 13 per cent of the population in Karnataka.

The challenge before Congress is to build on this victory and deliver on the promises. Society needs to heal the wounds made by the polarising rhetoric of right-wing political groups. Its first task would be to build a consensus on the chief minister candidate. As for the BJP, the debacle presents an opportunity to course correct in the state and build a new leadership.

The Express editorial said: “The 2024 contest has just acquired a new frisson of unpredictability — in a democracy, that is good news. The Karnataka verdict is a vote against hubris and complacency. The BJP must look again at its template, its fit or lack of it with local topographies. And the Congress must know that the Karnataka victory need not mean that the tide has turned – it needs to build on the work it has done.”

We have published a range of views — from Congress and BJP leaders to academicians — on the verdict. Visit https://indianexpress.com/section/opinion/ for a clear view of the election outcome.

That’s all for now.

Best,
Amrith

Amrith Lal is Deputy Editor with the Opinion team