Opinion China-brokered Iran-Saudi détente: India must be ready to deal with Beijing translating economic might into diplomatic wins

While blaming US-led interventions for regional instability, China has supported Gulf countries in setting up multilateral dialogue platforms and taking the initiative in regional issues

The China-brokered agreement coming a month after Raisi’s visit to Beijing shows how Beijing has successfully leveraged its ties with an Iran struggling with domestic pressure, sanctions, and deteriorating ties with Europe over its military support to Russia. (China Daily via REUTERS)

March 13, 2023 03:56 PM IST First published on: Mar 13, 2023 at 03:56 PM IST

On March 10, in a surprise development, National Security Advisors of Iran and Saudi Arabia, in the presence of Chinese State Councillor Wang Yi in Beijing, announced that they have reached a common understanding on resolving their concerns, and will re-open their embassies within two months.

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Over the last seven years since January 2016, when the Saudi kingdom severed diplomatic ties with Iran after the attack on the former’s embassy in Tehran, the two countries have been engaged in a rivalry for regional geopolitical influence, prolonging conflicts in Yemen and Syria. Only a few months ago, Iran’s top military officials were threatening Saudi Arabia with consequences unless it controlled its Persian-language media outlets zealously covering anti-government protests in Iran. Riyadh had raised alert levels citing a “credible threat of attack” from Iran. China, by mediating the agreement, has demonstrated its vast political capital in the region, and is contrasting its “constructive” role towards regional peace vis-à-vis that of the United States, which has long been the dominant power in the Middle East.

The Iran-Saudi security dialogue began in April 2021 in tandem with the indirect negotiations between the US and Iran in Vienna, aimed at resuming their mutual compliance with the JCPOA. Washington had refused calls from the Gulf Cooperation Council countries — especially Saudi Arabia — to be involved in the nuclear talks or to bring regional security issues, such as Iran’s missiles and drone programme and support for regional proxies, within the ambit of its dialogue with Tehran. Subsequently, then-Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi facilitated talks between Iranian and Saudi security officials for the first time in six years.

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Their dialogue focussed on Yemen, where the Saudi-led coalition was struggling to push back against Houthi rebels’ advance in the oil-rich Marib province, as Houthis continued to launch drone and missile attacks on the Saudi territory. In light of the strategic impasse and humanitarian catastrophe precipitated by the six-year Saudi-led blockade of Yemen, the Biden administration, as a conflict management measure, had announced the end of American support for offensive operations in the war in Yemen, including relevant arm sales, in February 2021. These developments made Riyadh see the logic of dialogue with Iran which, together with Lebanese Hezbollah, backed Houthis.

Three rounds of dialogue were held during the Rouhani administration. Under Ebrahim Raisi, the process struggled in the face of the change of government in Iraq, the death of Iran’s envoy to Yemen from Covid-19 for which Tehran blamed Riyadh’s “delayed repatriation”, and Riyadh’s mass execution of Saudi Shi’i and backers of Houthi rebels in March last year.

In April 2022, when the UN was able to broker a ceasefire in Yemen, Iran and Saudi delegations met in Baghdad after a gap of seven months. Two months later, when Riyadh threatened to boycott the talks, blaming Houthis for continuing military operations around Marib, it was Kadhimi who engaged in shuttle diplomacy between Riyadh and Tehran.

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However, to understand the Chinese role in brokering the final agreement, it is important to go back to January 2022, when Wang Yi, then China’s foreign minister, had hosted his counterparts from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Oman, Turkey and Iran over one week in Wuxi City. In doing so, Beijing underscored its balanced approach of strengthening ties with all players based on “common interests and mutual respect” rather than geopolitical alignments with specific countries. Keen to distinguish China’s growing regional engagement from that of the US, Wang argued that the Middle East did not need an “external patriarch”. While blaming US-led interventions for regional instability, Wang supported Gulf countries in setting up multilateral dialogue platforms and taking the initiative in regional issues, including those involving Iran.

Tehran, which considers China its most important strategic partner, was alarmed when the joint statement issued at the first China-GCC Summit in Riyadh in December 2022 called on Iran to maintain the non-proliferation regime and respect the principles of non-interference in the internal affairs of states. Its call for bilateral negotiations on three Persian Gulf islands governed by Iran and disputed by the UAE led Tehran to summon the Chinese envoy in protest.

The China-brokered agreement coming a month after Raisi’s visit to Beijing shows how Beijing has successfully leveraged its ties with an Iran struggling with domestic pressure, sanctions, and deteriorating ties with Europe over its military support to Russia. New Delhi will now have to deal with the new reality where China has been able to translate its economic influence in West Asia into diplomatic heft.

The writer is Associate Fellow, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses