I dont think I am threatening,do you? asked a free Aung San Suu Kyi of a crowd gathered in Rangoon on Sunday. This was her first public speech in seven years. From the streets of Rangoon to Lutyens Delhi,from the private residence of Archbishop Desmond Tutu to Bonos estate,a sense of optimism circles the air. The Lady is now free,again. Free after spending 15 of the past 21 years in detention,mostly in her house along the Inya Lake in Rangoon. The anticipation in the air was predictable. Would Suu Kyi challenge the results of the November 7 elections,widely discredited as a sham by analysts and challenge the constitution? In the event,she dodged questions on her political ambitions. The rhetoric was lowered a notch,her tone tangibly conciliatory. Suu Kyi now says she wants to speak directly and honestly with the generals,claiming progress will only be made if forces work together. She has called for national reconciliation with those who jailed her. Rather than criticising China for plundering Burmas national resources she merely expressed disapproval. The junta too has been uncharacteristic. Rather than speaking out against Suu Kyi,as they have done in the past,the generals maintained silence from the reclusive capital Naypyidaw,320 km from Rangoon. The junta,normally prone to squashing gatherings and political assemblies,allowed the massive congregation. Absent were the police forces and the security apparatus. So lenient it seems is the hand of the junta that they have allowed Suu Kyi access through all of Burma. One is therefore justified in asking: is Burma undergoing structural change? Much has changed in the political landscape during Suu Kyis detention. In the November 7 elections,37 political parties stood for more than 1,100 seats across the two houses of parliament and 14 local legislative assemblies. Amongst them were the military backed USDP and the NUP that represented the regime between 1962 and 1988. It is claimed by the junta that USDP won with an 80 per cent mandate. But there were other victors too,among them smaller parties like the National Democratic Force (NDF).It is these parties that are slowly ushering in the potential of democratic change in Burma. Collectively known as the Third Force they have gained popular support in Burma. According to Burma expert Marie Lall at the Chatham House,Suu Kyi will need to tread carefully: While it can be expected that she will draw a hard line in opposition with the regime… it would be wise to take into account the fact that the NLD is no longer the sole voice of the opposition.Thus Suu Kyis NLD is no longer the party of yesteryears: the sole opposition to the generals. In fact,according to the constitution the party does not exist as a legal entity! Will Suu Kyis energies now be focused on ensuring the NLDs revival? But the NLD itself is divided. The promise of election led to a fracture between members of the NLD. Twenty-five senior members broke ranks with the NLD to create the NDF. The decision came following Suu Kyis decision to boycott the elections NLD loyalists saw this as tantamount to betrayal. But the NDF believes political participation is necessary for furthering democracy,with or without Suu Kyi. The main point of departure between the splinter groups is the constitution. According to the constitution,and thus the junta,there is a prerequisite to NLDs existence: Suu Kyis departure. The challenge for Suu Kyi will be to bridge the gap between the two parties that are attempting to tap the same network of supporters. Suu Kyis bargaining chip is her global stature and the possibility of softening the sanctions regime. Suu Kyi and the NLD have supported the sanctions policy since 1993; she had even called for a tourism boycott. But there are indications that she might soften her tone. In fact,in her speech at the NLD headquarters she indicated a softening of the sanctions regime.Suu Kyi has in the past used sanctions as a manoeuvring tool to sway the generals. In April 2009 she used sanctions to enter into talks with the junta for the first time in two years and to meet diplomats from the US,the UK and Australia for the first time in six years. The junta is at present seen to be keen on promoting its new democratic image. It is in this changed context that one should be careful of jumping to preconceived notions about what could come next in Burma.
alia.allana@expressindia.com
