Progress in talks,strike on Iran less likely

They cite a series of factors that,for now,argue against a conflict. The threat of economic sanctions has prompted Iranians to try flexible tactics in their dealings with the US and other powers,while the revival of negotiations has tempered the most inflammatory talk on all sides.

A growing divide in Israel between political leaders and military and intelligence officials over the wisdom of attacking Iran has begun to surface. And the White House appears determined to prevent confrontation that could disrupt world oil markets in an election year. I do think the temperature has cooled, a US official said this week.

At the same time,no one is discounting the possibility that the optimism could fade. While there isnt an agreement between the US and Israel on how much time,there is an agreement that there is some time to give diplomacy a chance, said Dennis Ross,who previously handled Iran policy for the Obama administration. So I think right now you have a focus on the negotiations, he added. It doesnt mean the threat of using force goes away,but it lies behind the diplomacy.

The talks two weeks ago in Istanbul were something of a turning point in US thinking about Iran. There had been little optimism in Washington,but Iran appeared more flexible and open to resolving the crisis even though no agreement was reached other than to talk again,in Baghdad next month. US officials believe the threat of tighter sanctions to take effect on July 1 convinced Iranians to take the negotiations more seriously,and that in turn has reduced the threat of war.