In Tamil Nadu huddle, NDA tests alliance math ahead of PM Modi rally; Dhinakaran returns

The urgency of the talks has been sharpened by two parallel developments pulling the alliance in opposite directions. On one hand, the Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK), led by T T V Dhinakaran, formally rejoined the NDA Wednesday, boosting the coalition.

On the other hand, the ruling DMK drew in former AIADMK minister R Vaithilingam, the last senior loyalist of O Panneerselvam (OPS), further weakening a faction whose bargaining power within the NDA had already been declining.

Goyal has been meeting a wide spectrum of players — established allies, returning partners, and fence-sitters — in an effort to finalise the alliance’s structure before the PM’s January 23 rally. The immediate goal, BJP leaders say, is to ensure that the dais alongside Modi reflects not just numbers but momentum: a visible demonstration that the NDA, led in the state by the AIADMK, has succeeded in pulling together a fragmented Opposition in the state.

The current NDA alliance already includes the AIADMK led by Edappadi K Palaniswami (EPS), Anbumani Ramadoss’s Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) faction, G K Vasan’s Tamil Maanila Congress, smaller parties, and outfits headed by leaders such as A C Shanmugham, Parivendhar and John Pandian.

But behind the show of unity lies a dense web of demands and counter-demands, all constrained by a single, politically sensitive number: 56 — the number of seats the BJP is seeking from the AIADMK for its fold. Of these seats, the BJP itself is expected to contest around 30 seats, leaving the remaining ones for its smaller allies whose expectations often far exceed their assessed electoral strength.

Dhinakaran’s return illustrates the careful calibration at work. The AMMK leader, who faces a pending CBI case, has been offered seven Assembly seats, a top BJP source said, although he is understood to be pressing for around 12. His induction is seen by NDA strategists as symbolically important, bringing back a familiar name with pockets of influence, but not transformative. “This is the first goal,” a senior BJP leader told The Indian Express, describing the AMMK’s return as a necessary starting point rather than a final settlement.

Other allies are driving harder bargains. Vasan is said to have sought around 10 seats but is likely to be offered three. Parivendhar, who also heads a business conglomerate, has demanded six but may have to be content with two, while Shanmugham is expected to be allocated one seat against his demand for five. Pandian, from southern Tamil Nadu and commanding a Dalit vote base, is likely to get one seat.

Within the PMK, the Anbumani faction is expected to get 18 seats from the AIADMK — down from the 23 it contested last time — leaving unresolved questions about accommodating senior leader and his father, S Ramadoss.

Ramadoss senior is understood to have sought 10 seats from the DMK earlier, and sources within the NDA say there is still hope of bringing him on board, possibly with a smaller allocation. However, there have also been reports of the DMK backing him to contest in seats where his rival faction fields candidates. A senior leader in the Ramadoss faction, though, said he would not personally prefer a contest targeting the Anbumani faction’s seats.

The discussions were also underway at Ramadoss’s Thailapuram residence Wednesday, with leaders weighing two main options: joining the DMK or aligning with actor Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) if the DMK response is delayed.

The DMK, meanwhile, faces concerns from its Dalit ally, the Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK), about accommodating Ramadoss senior — a Vanniyar-dominated force. Vanniyars are not only the largest OBC community in Tamil Nadu but are also known for having strained ties with the Dalit groups.

The position of Panneerselvam, once central to the NDA’s Tamil Nadu calculations, has weakened sharply amid these manoeuvres. While he remains formally unaffiliated, his son O P Ravindranath visited the hotel where Goyal was holding talks, telling NDA leaders he is keen on a ticket. NDA sources say if Panneerselvam rejoins the alliance, he is likely to be offered around three seats.

That bargaining leverage has been further undercut by Vaithilingam’s defection to the DMK. A four-time MLA from the Delta region and a former AIADMK minister, Vaithilingam had stood with Panneerselvam the longest, even amid his prolonged indecision and a demoralised camp. His exit not only deprives Panneerselvam of his last organisational anchor but also strengthens the DMK’s hand in the Delta, where the ruling party is keen to leverage his local influence and sitting-MLA status to consolidate its position.

For the NDA, the contrast is stark. While it is adding names to its roster — most notably Dhinakaran — it is also confronting the limits of coalition arithmetic, where every addition reshuffles expectations elsewhere. Amid this churn, top BJP sources said popular leader and former state chief K Annamalai is likely to contest the polls from either Erode or Coimbatore in western Tamil Nadu.