Pak jihadists have replaced slain Qaeda leaders: Report

Analysts say withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan may plunge Pak into deeper chaos

From multibillion-dollar military aid to stealthy and secretive drone strikes,Pakistan,perhaps even more than Afghanistan,has been the central focus of Americas 12-year war on Islamist militancy.

Now,as President Barack Obamas landmark policy speech on Thursday made clear,all of that is changing. Drone strikes are dwindling,the war in Afghanistan is drawing to a close and the battle against al-Qaeda is receding.

Pakistani leaders who have long demanded an American exit from their region may get their wish,but a broader disengagement is also likely to diminish the financing,prestige and political importance Pakistan held as a crucial player in global counterterrorism efforts,and could upset its internal stability.

The diminution of the drone campaign may ease a major point of friction between Pakistan and the West,but the tribal belt in northwestern Pakistan,where about 360 drone strikes have landed in the past decade,remains a hotbed of Islamist militancy,largely outside government control. Although many senior leaders of al-Qaeda sheltering there have been felled by CIA missiles,they have been largely replaced by committed Pakistani jihadists with ties that span the border with Afghanistan.

With American combat troops leaving Afghanistan in 2014,and the drone campaign already winding down in Pakistan,analysts fear that unless the Pakistani Army can assert itself conclusively,the tribal region could be plunged into deeper chaos. Its going to be a lot of trouble, said Hasan Askari-Rizvi,a Pakistani academic and defense analyst. If the insurgency increases in Afghanistan,it will spill into Pakistans tribal areas,where the Taliban will become very confident.

For 12 years,the United States security-driven policy has shaped power,politics and militancy in Pakistan. That relationship has also fostered resentment,and some Pakistani leaders welcome an American disengagement.

Americas dogged pursuit of fugitives linked to al Qaeda first in Pakistans cities,later in the tribal belt along the Afghan border led to a two-faced policy toward Islamist militancy. Pakistani officials secretly accepted,and in some cases encouraged,the American drone program,while condemning it in public as a violation of sovereignty.

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Similarly,under pressure from Washington,Pakistan helped the CIA arrest some jihadists,while it quietly sheltered other armed militant groups,like the Afghan Taliban and Lashkar-e-Toiba,who were seen as furthering Pakistani interests in Afghanistan and India.

The central factor now,experts say,is the American withdrawal from Afghanistan next year. The United States will seek a smooth exit from the conflict; Pakistan will seek to retain influence in its western neighbor,while ensuring the flow of money and military assistance from the West. As ever,the relationship is shaped more by threats than possibilities,a stark contrast with Washingtons trade-based relations with Pakistans traditional rival,India.

DECLAN WALSH