One to two

In September 1980,the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party put out a public letter that,for the first time,announced Chinas one-child policy. Typically,it was not debated either in public or in the rubber-stamp national parliament beforehand; even more typically,it was enforced soon enough with ruthless,heavy-handed efficiency. Chinas population may have slowly adapted to this intrusion into their lives,and the policy itself is less stringently enforced and contains more loopholes than before; but it is clear that it still bites. So,as the date on which the original announcement claimed pressure would have been alleviated 30 years on from 1980 fast approaches,there are unsurprising reports of push-back.

One such was news on Thursday that the Shanghai local government intends to urge some urban couples in which neither partner has siblings to have more than one child. Such couples have been made exempt from the national policy anyway; local governments dont directly challenge central authority. But to visit couples at home suggesting that they have another child nevertheless indicates the depth of feelings in many parts of urban China that the policy has failed. Attempts by the government to link economic progress since the 70s to population control didnt succeed; and the coming four-two-one problem,where one earner fears being responsible for six dependents in the generations above,has fuelled demands that the policy end now.

The central government is unlikely to agree. China finds it very hard to reverse course: the last official position is that it will continue for at least another decade. But this risks more than demographic stress. It skews the gender ratio; as in parts of India,many Chinese prefer boy children to girls,and if they are allowed just one,will try and try till they get a boy. Theres also fear that party-controlled adoption rings keep one-child figures healthy. And most pervasive is the vision of an urban China too full of pampered,isolated young people,called little emperors; a generation of only children that might,some in China fear,completely overhaul the nations fundamental values. Either way,the Party will likely discover that the rest of China feels pretty much as Shanghai does.