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Lalu Prasads conviction may roil Bihar politics ahead of 2014,but he has survived many setbacks.

With no ordinance to protect him from his fate,Lalu Prasad,along with 44 others,was convicted by a Ranchi court. Though his sentence will be announced later,this verdict brings one of our most memorable corruption scandals close to resolution. The fodder scam in Bihar,which was perpetrated over nearly 20 years,has taken almost as long to prosecute. Politicians and public officials made lists of imaginary livestock and pocketed money meant for their fodder,medicine and other supplies,the arrangement undisturbed by any change in state government. Lalu Prasad himself ordered the first inquiry after incriminating details were exposed,but he and hundreds of Bihars powerful were soon caught in the CBIs probe. Lalu Prasad had to step down as chief minister in 1997,and was even briefly jailed for cases relating to the fodder scam,but his political career and charisma have proved to be more durable than anyone imagined. Only a few years after being disgraced as the face of Bihars corruption,he got the key railway ministry in the UPA and resold himself as savvy manager,responsible for much investment in Bihar. He has suffered political near-death experiences like the last Lok Sabha election,but his hold among voters remains formidable.

The RJD has put a brave face on the conviction too,vowing to fight the legal and political battle ahead. There is a phalanx of other leaders in the RJD,and Lalu Prasad has never hesitated to lean on his family,given that his wife Rabri Devi has even filled in for him as CM. He can continue directing the partys affairs from prison. But though the leadership issue does not a pose a problem so far,the RJDs electoral calculations are bound to be affected by the verdict.

At this point,Bihars political certainties are crumbling,with Lalu Prasad in jail and Nitish Kumars break with the BJP. The RJDs Muslim-Yadav combination is looking shaky. Muslims,who constitute 18 per cent of the population in Bihar,appreciate Lalu Prasads strong secularism he famously put an end to the rath yatra,but his absence could persuade some to look to the JDU,which has staked its fortunes on resisting Narendra Modi. The Yadav vote cannot be taken for granted either. The RJD will face tougher odds than ever,and it will take all Lalu Prasads skill to steer the party beyond this setback.