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This is an archive article published on April 24, 2010

Met predicts normal monsoon this year

The Met Department on Friday forecast a ‘normal’ monsoon rainfall this season,bringing cheer to the government...

THE Met Department on Friday forecast a ‘normal’ monsoon rainfall this season,bringing cheer to the government which had to face the consequences of a drought last year.

In its first long-range forecast for the monsoon season,the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) said rainfall in the four-month period spread over June to September was likely to be 98 per cent of the long period average (LPA). The LPA is defined as the average annual rainfall recorded between 1941 and 1990. In quantitative terms,LPA is 89 cm of rainfall. The IMD said its prediction had a model error of five per cent in either direction.

Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar said the monsoon forecast was very positive news for the country. “The forecast of a normal monsoon is a very good sign,” he said,adding that good rainfall would ensure bumper crops. The country had faced a drought last year,receiving 23 per cent deficient rainfall.

IMD will update its forecast in June when it will also announce regional and monthly rainfall predictions. The current prediction is based on a statistical forecast system which uses five key indicators. The forecast in June will use six predictors,three of which would be the same as being used now.

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