Khyber pax

Democracies often tend to panic before finding the resolve to face up to adverse circumstances. Almost eight years after ousting the Taliban from Afghanistan and barely six months after announcing a brand new strategy to turn the faltering war around,Washington is stricken by political panic. Domestic support for the Afghan war is rapidly eroding. The opposition is no longer confined to the left-wing of the ruling Democratic party,which never liked the war. The liberal anti-war sentiment has now been reinforced by important conservative and realist voices which suggest that the Afghan war is not winnable and therefore Washington must cut its losses and move on.

Despite the mounting domestic clamour for an American withdrawal,it is entirely unlikely that the US President Barack Obama will beat the drums of retreat. At least for now. All indications are that he might approve the request of his new commander in Afghanistan,General Stanley McChrystal,for a substantive increase in the size of the American military presence there. Given the searing memory of 9-11,and the fact that al-Qaeda remains entrenched in the borderlands of Pakistan,Obama will find it hard to declare victory and get out. Obama is already being reminded that the US had abandoned Afghanistan before and suffered 9-11 as a consequence. Obama would want to do and be seen as doing all he can before declaring that the war in Afghanistan is unwinnable. In democracies,policy outcomes are always compromises among contending interests and competing views. In the next few weeks we are likely to see Obama making the case for patience,promising tangible progress and seeking more resources. Congress is likely to approve his request while imposing many benchmarks for measuring progress within a short time line. While the president will have his way on a more intensive engagement with Afghanistan,Congress will win the point that the costly American occupation of Afghanistan cannot be open-ended and unconditional.

Put on a short leash by Congress,Obama will have no choice but to go all-out to demonstrate progress in Afghanistan in the next few months. Whether Obama succeeds or not,the consequences will be significant. This is the time for New Delhi,which has a common interest with Washington in preventing an extremist take over of Afghanistan,to embark on active diplomacy and articulate ideas on how to stabilise the north-western frontiers of the subcontinent. India will help itself if it can assist the international community in prevailing over the Taliban and its friends in Afghanistan.