Jaganmohan tests himself

Jaganmohans very survival depends on the outcome of the byelections to these seats,being held on June 12 alongside one to the Nellore Lok Sabha seat. He is hemmed in from all sides: a CBI probe into how he made his wealth has crippled his empire with his properties attached,his friends are either in jail or under investigation,and he is under a bitter attack from rivals.

Facing possible political oblivion and a stint in jail,he is looking at these elections to provide a pointer to how his YSR Congress Party will stand against the Congress and the Telugu Desam Party in the 2014 elections. That in turn will be a pointer to whether Jaganmohan,40,will one day become chief minister,a position that lakhs of his fans feel was rightfully his after the death of his father Y S R Reddy,but which the Congress denied him.

Probe and popularity

Jaganmohan has assured all those who stood by him,resigned as MLAs and joined his party that he will get them reelected. The confidence stems from the way he is being greeted everywhere,leaving no doubt he is the most popular leader in Andhra Pradesh today.

In Ongole,he is campaigning for sitting MLA Balineni Srinivasa Reddy,a YSR loyalist who quit the Congress to join the YSR Congress. In Eetamukkala,a village all decked up in welcome,he is greeted with crackers. He first addresses fans from atop the bus but then gets down to shake hands with everyone,addressing the elders as grandfather or grandmother,the younger supporters as brother or sister. It takes some some time before his guards can clear the way for the convoy.

Wherever he goes,people refer to him as the chief minister-in-waiting,or Jagan Anna,just as they had addressed his father. So,is he looking a a clean sweep? I dont want to sound arrogant but there will be something for everyone to see, he says. This is not an unimportant election. The constituencies are spread all over the state. Wait and see.

Pollsters predict victory in 16 of the 18 seats as well as the Lok Sabha seat.

In Ongole,candidate Reddy,a three-time MLA,knows his reelection depends on Jaganmohans popularity alone. He keeps a respectful distance from the man 20 years his junior,sensing the stress he is under. The Congress government has agreed to the CBIs request to attach all Jaganmohans properties. His media empire comprising Sakshi Telugu daily and Sakshi TV faces closure. The CBI has moved to freeze their accounts,the government has decided not to accept Sakshi advertisements,but it survives for now with the Andhra Pradesh High Court staying both orders until further notice.

Does the CBI think Sakshi has no value at all? Sakshi has over 14 lakh circulation,we are ranked number eight in the country, Jaganmohan says. They have arrested industrialist Nimmagadda Prasad for investing in Sakshi. He made his money by selling shares of Bharathi Cements. How can the CBI say that this was a quid pro quo arrangement? Why,then,doesnt he say all this in public? When everyone has turned against me and only want to criticise me,why should I bother?

After the third chargesheet was filed,the special court for CBI cases summoned Jaganmohan or a representative. He first defiantly said he would appear on the May 28 date,then had second thoughts. I dont need to appear. My lawyer will appear on my behalf, he says.

What the polls mean

The by-elections were necessitated by the resignation and disqualification of 17 MLAs 15 Congress,one TDP,one PRP who switched over to the YSR Congress Party along with Nellore MP Mekapati Rajamohan Reddy from the Congress,and the nomination of Tirupati MLA K Chiranjeevi as a Rajya Sabha MP.

Even if Jaganmohans party wins all 18 seats,the Congress government will remain intact due to the support of AIMIM,and former PRP MLAs who have now merged with Congress. A large number of Congress MLAs who are sitting on the fence,however,may then try and flock to Jaganmohan. I wont accept them, Jaganmohan makes it clear.

I have no interest in destabilising or toppling this Congress government. Let it carry on the way it is going. My mother and I walked out of Congress for a reason. After my father died,I gave my word to the people that I will meet and console the families of those who died of shock or committed suicide at the news of his death. I gave my word and it was important to me, he stresses. 8230;We asked the rest to stay in the Congress.

The YSR Congress has fielded all sitting MLAs who resigned. These include Pilli Subhash Chandra from Ramachandrapuram who was a minister in the YSR cabinet,brothers Mekapati Chandrasekhara Reddy Udayagiri and Mekapati Rajamohan Reddy Nellore Lok Sabha,former PRP legislator B Shoba Nagi Reddy Allagadda,Dharmana Krishna Das Narasannapeta who is the brother of minister Dharmana Prasada Rao,and former TDP MLA P Srisatyanarayana Murthy Prathipadu.

Jagnamohan is a little reluctant to talk about his plans after the byelections and for the 2014 elections. When I broke away from the Congress,no one thought I will last this long. Even I did not have the confidence that I will come this far. But look where I have reached today. I am doing an Odarpu yatra for two-and-a-half years and have covered so many districts,met so many people, he says.

What if more Congress MLAs switch over to his side with an eye on 2014? I will be choosy about Congressmen joining me. They will carry with them a strong anti-incumbency factor,which is not good. I will look for fresh faces, he says.

The frenzy

The convoy enters another village and Jaganmohan is mobbed by young men and women who are eager to shake hands. Once again,the villagers burst crackers and loudspeakers play songs praising father and son. Some hold up their babies and young children seeking his blessings and a kiss on the forehead.

A young man calls out to him that it is time he became the chief minister. We are with you,you go ahead, chants the crowd,some from outside their homes,some on roof-tops,some running in front of the convoy.