How many zeroes in 10?

Mindful of the coming embarrassment,no senior leader of the CPM showed any interest in the bypoll nominations. Besides,two of its most senior leaders Chief Minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee and CPM state secretary Biman Bose made it clear that they would not be available for campaigning.

With the CPMs latest internal assessment showing that over 60 per cent of its cadres are inactive since the LS poll debacle in May,nobody expects a miracle in the coming four days. The party,therefore,has fallen back on a successful strategy deployed by it since the 1980s a division of the Opposition votes.

The Congress is seeing Jyoti Basus appeal to its voters on Sunday to support the Left,the first such statement by the CPM in the state,as another indication of a ploy to split its votes.

However,the CPM may not achieve a lot of success in that. After much bickering and some heartburn over the Siliguri Municipal Corporation tussle,the Congress and Trinamool have managed to keep together their alliance for the bypolls. The Congress ceding the Rajgunj seat a Congress stronghold in North Bengal came as a further cementing factor.

With a CPM assessment showing that five months after the Lok Sabha polls,the voting pattern in the state might not have changed much,the votes of the two parties are still united at the grassroots level and this is likely to spell doom for the Left Front candidates. Even the star candidate for the CPM in Belgachia East,Ramola Chakraborty,is unlikely to defeat Trinamool Congress candidate Sujit Bose.

Worse,a nine out of 10 result as expected will be a major force multiplier for the combination and a morale booster for their workers at the grassroots. While it may not have much of an impact in the current Assembly,it will encourage Mamata to escalate her campaign against the ruling party.

Once we can establish that the CPM can be defeated anywhere,the unity will be strengthened, says Partho Chatterjee,Leader of the Opposition. The bypoll is an experiment for us to see whether at the grassroot level we can work together, adds another leader.

As example of this,the Trinamool quotes the instance of Srirampore,where a strong critic of Mamata Banerjee. Congress leader Abdul Mannan,is working for Trinamool candidate Sudipto Roy.

Before 1998,the Congress vote bank would be fractured owing to infighting at the grassroots level. And the CPM made most of this division of votes in panchayat,municipality and Assembly polls.

When Mamata Banerjee split the Congress and formed the Trinamool Congress in 1998,even this actually helped the ruling party remain in power initially. Till Mamata was with the BJP,the Marxists easily won the elections.

Though the Trinamool had an official alliance with the Congress in the 2001 Assembly bypolls,it didnt affect the Maoists at the time as there was confusion over Mamatas future plans whether she would remain with the BJP or keep the alliance with the Congress alive. This confusion was reflected in the poll prospects of the Congress and the opposition parties at large.

But since Mamata joined the UPA government,the bond between the Congress and Trinamool has strengthened,making the CPM sweat.

The Opposition,for instance,has always won 50 per cent of the votes. But this was split into various formations. The CPM isnt blind to this,and in fact,since the 2006 Assembly polls,it has called upon its cadres to ensure 50 per cent votes in every constituency.

Prior to the May 2009 Lok Sabha polls,the first indication of what a tie-up of opposition votes could achieve was visible in the Panchayat polls of 2008. Though there was no official alliance,workers from all opposition parties made effective alliances at the village level,battering the CPM across the state.

The Trinamool chief herself is leaving nothing to chance,and has fielded a strong candidate even from Kolkatas Alipur constituency,an assured seat for the party. As a senior Trinamool leader says,The wave for change is still there. We have to ensure our voters reach polling stations on vote day.