First prediction today: There will be a normal monsoon this year

The four-month monsoon season beginning June is likely to bring normal rainfall to the country,and provide huge relief to the govt.

There is good news for those reeling under a heat wave. The four-month monsoon season beginning June is likely to bring normal rainfall to the country,and provide huge relief to the government.

The India Meteorological Department IMD,which will be making a formal announcement for the season on Friday,is predicting that rainfall between June and September this year will be 98 per cent of the long period average. In IMD categorization,this means the rainfall is likely to be normal. The IMD is also learnt to be saying that the actual rainfall could vary five per cent in either direction from its forecast.

According to IMD categorizations,rainfall in the range of 96 to 104 per cent of the long period average is deemed to be normal. Between 90 to 96 per cent rainfall is called below normal while less than 90 per cent is termed deficient. On the higher side,rainfall between 104 to 110 per cent is classified as above normal while more than that is termed excess.

The ministries concerned have already been sounded about the forecast in a confidential note.

The 98 per cent forecast is likely to bring some cheer in the government which has had to face the consequences of a drought last year. The country received 23 per cent deficient rainfall last year which severely affected the kharif crop output last season. Nearly 60 lakh hectares of paddy fields remained unsown last year and production fell by 12 per cent.

The monsoon prediction is being helped by two crucial indicators,El Nino and the Indian Ocean Dipole IOD,moving in a positive direction. The El Nino,which is a measure of differences in sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean and is known to have a negative impact on the monsoon system,has been showing definite signs of weakening for the last many weeks. It is expected that El Nino conditions,which were strong in December last year,will be almost totally neutralised by the end of July.

The IOD,which again is measure of sea surface temperatures but in the Indian Ocean,is already in the positive zone and is seen to continue like this till the end of August.