Indias exports fell by annual 19.4 per cent in August for the 11th straight month,but exporters bleeding under the global recession foresee better times around Christmas.
The countrys overseas shipments aggregated 14.28 billion in August this fiscal against 17.72 billion a year ago. However,the decline improved by nine percentage points from 28.4 per cent in July as demand for merchandise picked up in the big global markets ahead of Christmas. From a high of over 30 per cent,the decline has come below 20 per cent and in the months to come we will see it in single digit, Federation of Indian Exports Organisation president A Sakthivel said. He said Christmas sales in the US and Europe might pick up,making western super stores buy more from countries such as India.
Imports saw a drastic drop of 32.4 per cent in August this year to 22.66 billion,mainly due to a sharp fall in crude oil prices to 70 per barrel from a peak of 147 per barrel last year. As a result,the countrys trade gap narrowed to 8.37 billion against 15.78 billion in the same month in 2008,according to official data released on Thursday. Exports during the April-August period of the current fiscal dropped 31 per cent to 64.12 billion from 92.95 billion in the same period last year. The trend may turn positive from the third quarter of 2009-10 after remaining negative since October 2008. I think by December or even November, Crisil principal economist D K Joshi said when asked when the turnaround is possible. While the oil import bill declined by 45.5 per cent to 6.28 billion,non-oil imports were down by 25.5 per cent to 16.38 billion.