Escalation games

The potential of the new ADIZ to heighten tensions is underscored by the fact that it overlaps with Japans ADIZ,imposed partly over territory China claims. Chinas ADIZ includes the disputed Diaoyu/ Senkaku islands,as well as territory claimed by itself,Japan,South Korea and Taiwan. Unsurprisingly but indicating the danger of miscalculation and a resultant,unplanned military incident Japan,Korea and the US had flown military aircraft in defiance of Chinas ADIZ. In response,Beijing had sent in its own warplanes. On Friday,China scrambled fighter jets again to monitor US and Japanese planes.

Apart from its territorial disputes in these resource-rich waters,Chinas displeasure at the US pivot to the Asia-Pacific has been all too visible. The ADIZ came on top of existing,and growing,military tensions. While Chinese public opinion is no longer satisfied with the PLA forces traditionally defensive posture,Tokyos new aggression vis-a-vis Beijing is also contributing to the escalation. Neither air force is a very experienced one,increasing the chances of an error of judgement. Given the regions significance for the global economy,the US with its 7th Fleet in Japan and also a large stake in geopolitical stability must lead the rest in de-escalating.