Vajpayee146;s family problems

But it is pretty obvious why the Congress is not keen on such an outcome. It wants the incumbency factor to cripple the BJP even more. An interim government, headed by a veteran like Basu may well run for a couple of years, but it would hurt the Congress the most. The BJP would, in the process, get the time and opportunity to regroup. The Congress, whether it joins such a government, or supports it from the outside, would get the worst of both worlds, and lose the momentum it has gained as the party which can replace the BJP. There is little reason why Sonia Gandhi would want to make way for someone else, when she faces no challenge to her leadership within the Congress. Besides, an early election could also prevent the Congress from reaching the 200 mark, without which there could be resistance to Sonia Gandhi8217;s leadership in the opposition camp.

Even as there is no imminent threat to Vajpayee, the situation is moving inexorably towards an election. This is because, after Goa, the BJP has embarked on a course which is bound to sharpen the conflict within the NDA. Whether by design or by default, the upshot of an aggressive Hindutva agenda would be the fall of the NDA government. Today, the TDP may pull back from the brink and Modi may agree to defer the decision to go in for polls, but it is going to become increasingly difficult to manage the contradictions. Nobody could stop the fall of the UF government in 1997 or Vajpayee8217;s in 1998, even though no MP had wanted an election. Vajpayee8217;s amazing volte face at Panaji showed the extent to which he had been marginalised. The current was moving in one direction and Vajpayee chose to swim with it in order to survive.

A significant development of recent days has been the manner in which the younger leadership inside the BJP identified with Modi. They 8212; the group included Arun Jaitley and Pramod Mahajan who have enjoyed a more liberal image and the more conventional party members like Venkaiah Naidu, Ananth Kumar, Balbir Punj 8212; bailed out a beleaguered Modi. They are convinced that the party must go back to its moorings and that this time Hindutva need not necessarily be of the temple variety but can reflect any aspect of 8216;pseudo secularism8217;. Some of these leaders have always been close to L.K. Advani. Others, traditionally loyal to Vajpayee, are also swerving to Advani8217;s side.

Make Gujarat the test case after the recent Hindu-Muslim polarisation, test the waters in Maharashtra by assessing the impact of events like the recent Kalyan riots, up the ante generally speaking so that the allies have no option but to pull the plug. This seems to be the most favoured blueprint for one section of the party. The crucial question thrown up by the recent events is whether the Sangh leadership and a section inside the BJP has decided that the time has now come for the party to cut its losses and opt for a mid-term poll under a new leadership. If this government is brought down, it will not be Vajpayee who will lead the BJP into the next elections.

One of the terms of the BJP-BSP agreement, which is being worked out in Uttar Pradesh, is that both parties would fight the Lok Sabha elections together in Madhya Pradesh, Delhi and Punjab. This would give the BJP an enormous advantage in these three states given the BSP8217;s presence there. But this must happen before problems crop up in the relationship! What about the BJP8217;s other allies in the event of a mid-term election? Well, they may well be limited to the Shiv Sena and the BSP, although Mamata Bannerji, the BJD and even Nitish Kumar would have few options.

The only thing that is clear in the present scenario is that the threat to Vajpayee does not from the Opposition or from his allies, despite their noises. It comes from within his own party and his extended family. That is the real paradox.