UPHILL ROAD AHEAD

Four years after the US-led invasion toppled Saddam Hussein, some challenges that Iraqi Shi8217;ite PM Nuri al-Maliki faces:

SADDAM8217;S LEGACY: Two wars launched by Saddam and US-led efforts to depose him by economic sanctions and military force crippled Iraq8217;s economy. Oppression and poverty drove skilled Iraqis abroad.

SECURITY VACUUM: Arguing Iraq8217;s armed forces had evaporated and were, in any case, loyal to Saddam, US officials dissolved them in 2003. Efforts to train over 300,000 new troops and police have proved difficult.

SUNNI INSURGENCY: The US invasion and rise to power of the long-oppressed Shi8217;ite majority and ethnic Kurds provoked revolt by Sunni Arabs, dominant under Saddam and before. Supporters of Saddam and other nationalist militant groups make up the backbone of the insurgency. Foreign-inspired al Qaeda Islamists have carried out attacks against Shi8217;ite and Western targets. Although Sunnis form part of the government and have seats in parliament, their participation in the US-backed political process has borne little fruit in defusing the insurgency.

SHI8217;ITE MILITIAS: Militiamen from Shi8217;ite parties in government, like the Mehdi Army of cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, joined up in droves into the security forces and have a big armed presence in their own right despite Maliki8217;s vow to disarm them. Maliki relies on Sadr for political support. Sunnis mistrust the police because of ties to Shi8217;ite militias.

KURDISH CLAIMS: Claims on territory and oil by ethnic Kurds in the north are disputed.

OIL REVENUES: Iraq8217;s Cabinet endorsed in February a draft oil law crucial to regulating how wealth from the world8217;s third largest oil reserves will be shared by Iraq8217;s ethnic and sectarian groups. The law must be approved by parliament. Competing claims on oil are the core of debate on amending Iraq8217;s constitution. The oil reserves are concentrated in the Kurdish north and the Shi8217;ite south.

COMMUNAL HATRED: Years of bloodshed and a surge in ethnic cleansing have given birth to communal fears and hatreds among previously tolerant Iraqis, such that popular anger, matched by mass access to weaponry, may be beyond the control of any leadership.

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REGIONAL DILEMMA: Iraq wants good ties with Shi8217;ite Iran and obviously needs the US, but fears getting caught in the middle of any conflict between the two over Tehran8217;s nuclear programme.