
Perhaps everyone concerned in the UPA-Left battle of threats over the nuclear deal has decided, as our story indicates today, that the government shouldn8217;t fall at this point over this issue. But those who were practising brinkmanship, including the BJP, which was hoping the government may fall, have plenty to think about their strategy. They should think first about the people. Voters would have been extremely unimpressed with any political group responsible for forcing a general election when the government is otherwise stable, when there is no political crisis, when there is clear popular expectation that the UPA will last the full term. Coalition governments have acquired a strong patina of political respectability ever since Atal Bihari Vajpayee led the NDA for a full term. Voters are now ready to live with coalitions and expect them to last five years. Therefore, parties responsible for pulling down governments are likely to be punished and those who are victims of such manoeuvres are likely to be rewarded. Indeed, that is what happened when the first Vajpayee government was pulled down by an assortment of parties, including the Congress, which had no viable alternative ready. Vajpayee came back with a bigger majority.
So this is what the Left must understand. If at any point in time the Left walks out of this ruling arrangement, voters8217; wrath over an unwelcome elections will most likely find its target. Even Bengal and Kerala may not be immune. The rest of the country is likely to be even more severe to topplers. Big states like UP and Bihar have had elections in the past year or so. Polls in big states like Gujarat are coming up. MP, Rajasthan are lined up for later. The 2009 general elections will come after them. To force a national poll into this calendar will be an act of extraordinary political folly. The Left, whatever it gets upset about now or later, must always remember this.