This prince has to be charming

Not being representative regimes, they are prone to being rocked by a groundswell of popular resentment on issues ranging from the lack of progress on the peace track to political Islam to economic despair. The aging Arab leaders in question had managed to contain widespread anger. Palestinian 8220;war of liberation8221; has been replaced by the militancy of the Hamas, Hezbullah and the Muslim Brotherhood.

In 1967 King Hussein joined the war along with Egypt and losthalf his kingdom. In 1970 he nearly abdicated, then decided to crush the PLO in an operation that came to be known as Black September. In 1991 he sided with Iraq during the Gulf War, again the decision was dictated by his sensitivity to the popular sentiment in favour of Iraq, even though he always abided by the cardinal principle: his kingdom was a creation of the west and he could not survive a moment without western support.

In such situations he often played both sides of the street by encouraging his brother, then Crown Prince Hasan, to open up one channel of communication while he himself operated on another.

This remarkable coordination, complete understanding, between the two brothers served the kingdom well for 34 years. The termination of this association so abruptly by the late King in his moment of physical and intellectual weakness is a decision that can only unsettle the kingdom and its environs.

When President Clinton along with former Presidents Ford, Carter and Bush trooped in tocommiserate with the new, 37-year old monarch, they were only following up on the good work already done a week ago by Secretary of State Madeleine Albright; she materialised suddenly in Amman on exactly the day that the late king removed Crown Prince Hasan from his station and named his eldest son Prince Abdullah as Crown Prince. The incredibly impressive list of world leaders at the funeral is a tribute to the late King8217;s popularity, charm, wisdom, statesmanship. But it also shows extraordinary global interest in a fragile but strategically located state. So much world attention on a tiny strip of land adjacent to what will probably be a Palestinian state is frightening phenomenon, particularly because the reins of the kingdom are now in inexperienced hands.

The real story of Hashemite succession will remain shrouded in mystery, even though the King attempted transparency in his letter to his brother giving reasons why Abdullah was replacing Hasan.

During the King8217;s absence in the US for cancertreatment, Crown Prince Hasan had tinkered with two areas out of bounds for everybody except the King: the army and the secret police. This is said to have ruffled feathers all around. Hasan had also declined the King8217;s suggestion that a council of the Hashemite family determined the issue of succession after Hasan. Inevitably, the wives come into play. It seems the King8217;s family and that of the Crown Prince had major disagreements. Obviously, the American-born Queen Noor would have wanted her son Hamzeh to be in line for succession. In balancing between Noor and Hasan, the King nominated a compromise candidate, Abdullah, whose additional qualification was that he was in the army which had a few grievances against Hasan. That the big powers preferred a manageable young man to an experienced and deeply intellectual Hasan adds another dimension to the Middle Eastern intrigue.

Some other inexplicable things have happened in this part of the world. On January 31, the authoritative Jordanian Timespublished an editorial: 8220;A leading Israeli daily newspaper disclosed recently what we have been suspecting all along: Israel is developing a live small pox virus as part of its new generation biological weapons programme.8221; Strangely, King Hussein8217;s letter to Hasan touches on the 8220;small pox threat8221; as one of his concerns. True, there is no reference to the story emanating from Israel but why should King Hussein be inspired to mention 8220;small pox8221; when there are a thousand pressing issues that must have played on him at the time of writing?

Everybody is watching with bated breath the build-up to the May election in Israel. Meanwhile, Yasser Arafat is threatening to declare a Palestinian state on May 4. A Palestinian state, whenever it comes into being, will have considerable impact on Jordan, an overwhelming majority of its population being Palestinians. A choice will be imposed on the Palestinians to abandon dual citizenship, opt for the Jordanian passport or return to Palestine. This issue itself willopen up a Pandora8217;s box at a time when King Abdullah will barely have tried out his first few paces in an area where boundaries have not remained sacrosanct for long.