The not-so general elections

All the subsequent campaigns, 1989, 1991, 1996, 1998 and 1999, were essentially negative, lacking in clear issues capable of polarising a body of voters large enough numerically and geographically to produce a clearer verdict.

The BJP has set an audacious agenda this time by unleashing a flurry of what, essentially, is a whole range of sops not for the masses but for what can only be described as the 8216;8216;Feel Good Classes.8217;8217; The series of concessions actually began with cheaper airline tickets, computers and cellphones and will probably end next week with more open access to private and foreign airlines, a liberalised export-import regime and a goody-bag for the special economic zones. Conventional logic would have tended to dismiss this quickly as 8216;8216;let-them-eat-cake8217;8217; politics. But in 2004, in the course of an 8 per cent growth year, coming on top of a 5 per cent plus growth decade, this is not quite so.

This is not silly politics. It may not be a stroke of genius but it is very interesting politics, a clear break from the past when pre-election goodies were handouts to the poor. The election-year budgets in the past actually tended to pack some punishment for the rich to exploit the Robin Hood syndrome. The favours handed out today are consistent with other broader economic reforms and liberalisation that the Narasimha Rao-Manmohan Singh team initiated in 1991. The only difference is that in the past the election year meant a temporary stop to the reform process. The BJP8217;s taking the risk of projecting reform as its central election issue marks a welcome paradigm shift.

The Congress can counter it in one of two ways. One, that all talk of the feel-good factor is so much self-serving rubbish and should only irritate the masses, who really decide who rules India. But this is risky. There are obvious dangers in swimming against what looks like a formidable tide now, talking the language of negativity and despondence when the popular mood, overall, seems to be on the contrary. In the unlikely event of the Congress-led coalition coming to power, it could also make it tougher for it to ensure continuity in economic policies which, you8217;d believe, will be its natural instinct. The second is to join the momentum. To say that what the NDA is flaunting is the fruit of 13 years of systematic reforms and liberalisation, a little more than half of which was carried out under the Congress, or the coalition supported by it.

In simpler terms, their question could be: this is the third chapter in the history of economic reforms. Please celebrate the joys it brings by all means. But would it have been possible if somebody had not written the first two? And if so, remember who did that. That is a more sensible course. The problem is, that would mean praising not just the Rao-Manmohan Singh reign but also P. Chidambaram, all of which does not fit with the Congress party8217;s natural instinct. But if Sonia can make her party rise above that, this election might actually see a campaign built on competitive notions8212;and promise8212;of reform. Can India ask for more of its politics in an election year?

The NDA and the still firming-up Congress coalition look a far cry from cohesive political groupings held together either by ideology or personal loyalties. If the NDA and, more specifically, Vajpayee and Advani deserve the credit for something, it is for convincing the people of India that coalitions can work quite as effectively as single-party governments. The success of the NDA, in terms of its electoral success as well as quality of governance, has also given the Congress and other, smaller parties the confidence of cobbling together a rival coalition of their own, giving up the crazy old notions of 8216;8216;outside support8217;8217; and so on. Some of that continues. The Left, for example, has still not crossed that final hurdle of hypocrisy. But the movement is in the right direction. Chances are, this year, if the NDA comes to power, Chandrababu Naidu8217;s TDP would join the government. So would so many of the smaller parties from the Northeast that begin and end their election campaigns from the church. It would be fascinating to watch how the leaders of the BJP balance the anti-missionary instinct of the VHP and the RSS while at the same time caressing the tails of the so many small, predominantly Christian parties that Purno Sangma will bring into their embrace.

The movement towards a two-coalition system is one of the more positive developments in our politics. Some of the parties may still be out of it in a third front but basically this signals the restoration of some kind of a centre of gravity in our politics, particularly if Mayawati signs up with the Congress. Once smaller, geographically limited parties join larger groupings and develop a vested interest in that status quo, they tend to behave more responsibly, or less irresponsibly, depending on who you are talking about. We have seen both the Akalis and the Shiv Sena change their conduct in the NDA. Now, can a two-coalition system finally lead to a two-party system? Early days yet, but just count the number of states where a two-party system has come into existence anyway. Who knows, the pieces may ultimately fit in to make a more cohesive picture nationally.

The third positive change in 2004 is the arrival of our Generation Next. True, this election is being fought for and against the wisdom and experience of Vajpayee, the seniormost among our long marchers, but from the BJP to the Congress to the Left this election would mark the arrival of the new generation of Indian politician. So here is the three-point wishlist on the agenda for these elections: My economic reform will be faster than yours, my coalition is more solid than yours and, alright, my offspring is smarter than yours. Optimistic, you might say. But in a year when 72 democracies around the world are going to the polls 8212; the largest number ever in history 8212; I8217;d rather err on the side of optimism.

Write to sgexpressindia.com