
On Saturday, the Pakistani parliament will likely elect Asif Ali Zardari to be the next president of Pakistan 8211; Mr. Ten Percent will become the top man. And if his run-up to the presidency is anything like his term in office, the country is in for a wild ride. He has tossed aside coalition partners, been outed as a mental patient prone to dementia and depression, banned the Taliban 8212; only to give them breathing room a day later 8212; and sparked unending debate about the merit of desperate men in desperate times. In the past few weeks, Zardari has demonstrated exactly what kind of leadership he is capable of, and it8217;s a troubling comment on Pakistani democracy that despite his performance, his victory this weekend is a sure shot.
The very nomination of Zardari as a presidential candidate triggered the collapse of the shaky coalition comprising the Pakistan People8217;s Party PPP and the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz PML-N. After weeks of wrangling over how and when to restore judges deposed by Pervez Musharraf and the appointment of his successor, former prime minister Nawaz Sharif split with the PPP once Zardari8217;s name was put forward for the presidency.
Initially, Sharif and Zardari had agreed that they would jointly nominate a neutral candidate. They had also agreed to prioritise the restoration of the judges, an issue that Zardari continues to waffle on. Sharif, meanwhile, has been left out in the cold. In fact, the manner in which Zardari has manipulated Sharif and his party 8212; reneging on promises, provoking PMLN cabinet ministers to quit the coalition, only to placate them later 8212; has been the most telling, and worrying, aspects of his recent exploits.
Pakistanis have long been aware that Zardari comes mired in corruption charges 8212; though never convicted, it is well known that he fears reinstating the judges because they may revoke the legal amnesty granted to him by the previous government. But the extent of his shamelessness has never before been so publicly demonstrated. In his failure to keep his oath to Sharif, Zardari has shown that he is unreliable, and not afraid to show it. More importantly, he has done a disservice to the thousands of Pakistanis who have been protesting the deposition of the judges since November 2007.
Zardari8217;s behaviour towards the Pakistani Taliban has been no more consistent. On the same day that his presidential nomination was announced, he declared that Pakistan and the world were losing the war on terror and that the Taliban had 8220;the upper hand8221; in the country8217;s northern areas. The next day, on a recommendation Zardari made in an interview with the BBC, the Pakistani government banned the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan and froze the extremist organisation8217;s bank accounts. The move was seen as an attempt by Zardari to reassure the international community that he was indeed the man for the job in a time when Pakistani militancy threatens to spiral out of control.
No doubt, with regards to addressing the Taliban presence in Pakistan8217;s tribal and northern areas, Zardari is perceived to be a better option than Sharif. It is well known that Sharif is a religious man who in the late 1990s banned rock music, aimed to impose Islamic law in Pakistan, and hoped to designate himself Amirul Momineen leader of the Muslim world. Zardari, on the other hand, brings secular credentials to the table as well as a compelling narrative about a wife allegedly assassinated by militants.
But before anyone could rest easy thinking that the Taliban may yet have met their match in Zardari, he opted for political expediency over security. On Sunday, the Pakistani government called for a ceasefire in the fight against northern militants to observe Ramadan. The decision to withdraw troops from the Bajaur Agency, where a sustained operation had been underway for several weeks, was understood to be a move by Zardari to win the support of religious parties in this Saturday8217;s election. Indeed, the Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam, a powerful Islamist party, had called for troop withdrawal from the region, describing military operations there as the result of an American mandate. Security experts have since argued that the ceasefire will give the Taliban a chance to regroup and consolidate their presence in the area.
Despite having to wheel and deal his way into the president8217;s seat, Zardari is also beginning to show troubling signs of overconfidence. The Pakistani president has historically been a politically neutral figure with no affiliations to a specific political party. Zardari, however, has already indicated that he would like to maintain his position as the co-chairman of the PPP, rather than resign from the party. This winner-take-all attitude is especially worrying given that Zardari will be president while Article 58 2 b 8212; which enables the president to dismiss the national assembly 8212; is in effect. The PPP has committed to reforming that undemocratic provision, but Zardari has ensured that their pledge seems like an irrelevant footnote.
On Wednesday, militants from the Swat Valley, where the army recently conducted an extensive operation, shot at Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani8217;s motorcade. Hopefully Gilani8217;s narrow escape will remind Zardari of the gravity of the situation and the perils of the post he seeks to assume. At this juncture, Pakistan cannot afford doubletalk and dissembling. Already, the Wall Street Journal has cited the country as the best case to be made against democracy. When he becomes president, Zardari will be forced by circumstance, if not the country8217;s citizens, to mould rather than manipulate Pakistan8217;s future.
The writer is a Karachi-based journalist