Decode Politics: Why Ajit and Sharad Pawar have joined hands — is NCP merger on the cards?

While both parties argued that not much should be read into the alliance, the move has sparked a buzz about their merger. “We will cross the bridge when we come to it. As of now, the focus is on local body polls,” said an NCP minister.

How did the alliance come about?

The civic elections are being viewed more as a tussle between members of the ruling alliance to consolidate their grassroots strength, than a contest between the Mahayuti and the Opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), which was swept away in the first two rounds of the local polls.

For the corporation elections scheduled for January 15, the BJP has struck a pact with the Eknath Shinde-led Sena, leaving the NCP to fend for itself. At a time when the BJP is building on its statewide dominance and sweeping the local polls too, the common objective of both its ally NCP — a stronger BJP means less leverage for it in the alliance — and the Opposition NCP (SP) is to stop its expansion, especially in their stronghold of Pune.

Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis’ unilateral announcement that the BJP would contest the Pune civic election on its own was made mainly to accommodate all the new inductees and strengthen the party’s grip over the city. The BJP also projected a friendly fight with the NCP as an opportunity to deprive the Opposition of any space.

However, with all the Opposition parties going solo — the Congress decided not to tie up with any of its allies — the BJP would have been in a position to make a breakthrough in Pune and to stop that from happening, Ajit Pawar decided to pursue a tactical alliance in the city and Pimpri-Chinchwad.

Though the two NCP parties had a bitter fallout during their split in July 2023, their workers claim an equal, emotional connection to both the Pawars and realised that only as a unified force could they check the BJP’s expansion. For the NCP(SP) workers, the tie-up provides a potential respite from continued electoral setbacks and keeps their political aspirations alive.

What does this reunion mean for local politics?

While both parties will use their own symbols, the reunited NCP will have more teeth and will be a strong barrier against the BJP crashing through in its traditional stronghold. Both parties also hope that this will put an end to their local leadership shifting to the BJP, which they have struggled against in recent weeks.

The expansionist agenda of the BJP has virtually eaten into the NCP-SP’s leadership in Pune and Pimpri-Chinchwad. Party MLA Bapu Pathare’s son Surendra recently joined the BJP. According to NCP (SP) sources, these actions resulted in the party facing serious troubles in finding able candidates to contest the polls.

“Not contesting the election would also mean giving up on the voter base. Once that base shifts towards others, then it becomes difficult to bring it back,” said a leader.

Could this lead to a merger?

While several leaders and workers of the parties hold out hope that this may be the first step towards a reunification, NCP (SP) MLA Rohit Pawar, Sharad Pawar’s grandnephew, ruled it out, telling reporters on Monday, “This alliance is limited to only two civic bodies and it is as per the wish of the local party workers and leaders.”

However, there are several hurdles towards that. First, given the disparities in the strengths of the two parties, reunification can only happen if Ajit Pawar is accepted as the leader of the unified party. Differences over this had contributed to the schism in the first place and there are no indications that things have changed since then in the Sharad Pawar camp.

Second, civic polls often tend to throw up odd combinations since the tie-ups are decided with hyperlocal dynamics and political interests in mind. In the first phase of the local polls, the Shiv Sena and Sena (UBT) came together in a few places to take on the BJP, while in some places, Eknath Shinde’s party joined hands with the Congress.

However, whether the door remains open for a realignment in state politics as far as the two NCPs are concerned will depend on the outcome in Pune and Pimpri-Chinchwad. If they fare well, there is bound to be a demand for a similar arrangement for the Zilla Parishad and Panchayat Samiti elections in late January.