Taking on George Bush

Sniff the air in Washington, DC, this spring and you notice the smell of decay.

Sniff the air in Washington, DC, this spring and you notice the smell of decay. The Republicans have been America8217;s dominant party, winning seven of the past ten presidential elections and controlling both houses of Congress since 19948230;And their institutional power has been as nothing compared with their ideological clout. Wherever you look 8212; from welfare reform to foreign policy 8212; the conservative half of America has made all the running.

Yet this machine is stalling. The White House is doing its best to engage in some emergency repairs. The past few weeks have seen the appointment of a powerful new chief of staff, Josh Bolten, and a new director of the Office of Management and Budget, Rob Portman. Karl Rove, George Bush8217;s chief political adviser, is also giving up his policymaking role to concentrate on preparing for this November8217;s elections. But the party8217;s problems go too deep for personnel changes to solve.

Mr Bush is the most unpopular Republican president since Richard Nixon. 8220;What is the difference between the Titanic and the Republican Party?8221; goes one joke in conservative circles. 8220;At least the Titanic wasn8217;t trying to hit the iceberg.8221;

This presents an opportunity for America8217;s other big party. The Democrats hope to win this year8217;s congressional elections in November and, on the back of those, to capture the White House in 2008. They need a net gain of 15 seats to take over the House and six seats to take over the Senate.

With two-thirds of Americans convinced that their country is heading in the wrong direction, this might appear to be easy. It isn8217;t. First, various technical factors 8212; from the power of incumbency to gerrymandering 8212; will help the Republicans in November. More important, if the Republicans reek of decay, the Democrats ooze dysfunctionality8230;

It is never easy for America8217;s out-of-government party. There is no leader of the opposition, and the cleverer presidential candidates may want to keep their powder dry till 2008. But it is not impossible to produce coherent ideas8230; The real danger facing the Democrats is that they become a permanent minority party 8212; a coalition that enjoys support from the super-rich, a few minorities and the working poor, but is out of touch with the suburban middle class, not to mention America8217;s broader interests. Such a party might sneak a victory this year8230;but then get hammered by, say, John McCain in 2008.

Excerpted from 8216;The Economist8217;, April 20