Spaced Out

Although the United States remains dominant in most space-related fields 8212; and owns half the military satellites currently orbiting Earth 8212; experts say other nations are expanding their civilian and commercial space capabilities at a far faster pace.

8220;We spent many tens of billions of dollars during the Apollo era to purchase a commanding lead in space over all nations on Earth,8221; said NASA Administrator Michael D. Griffin, 8220;We8217;ve been living off the fruit of that purchase for 40 years and have not 8230; chosen to invest at a level that would preserve that commanding lead.8221;

In a recent in-depth study of international space competitiveness, the technology consulting firm Futron, USA. found that the globalising of space is unfolding more broadly and quickly than most Americans realize. Six separate nations and the European Space Agency are now capable of sending sophisticated satellites and spacecraft into orbit. New ventures are being planned to carry Chinese, Russian, European and Indian astronauts to the moon, to turn Israel into a centre for launching minuscule 8220;nanosatellites,8221; and to allow Japan and the Europeans to explore the solar system and beyond with unmanned probes as sophisticated as NASA8217;s.

Here what8217;s happening:

8226; Following China8217;s lead, India has announced ambitious plans for a manned space programme. In November the European Union will probably approve a proposal to collaborate on a manned space effort with Russia. Russia will soon launch rockets from a base in South America under an agreement with the European company Arianespace.

8226; Japan and China both have satellites circling the moon. India and Russia are also working on lunar orbiters. NASA will launch a lunar reconnaissance mission this year. Many analysts believe the Chinese will be the first to return astronauts to the moon.

8226; The United States is largely out of the business of launching satellites for other nations, something the Russians, Indians, Chinese and Arianespace do regularly. Clients include Nigeria, Singapore, Brazil, Israel.

8226; South Korea, Taiwan and Brazil have plans to quickly develop their space programmes and possibly become low-cost satellite launchers. South Korea and Brazil are both developing homegrown rocket and satellite-making capacities.

While the origins of Indian, Chinese, Japanese, Israeli and European space efforts go back several decades, sending humans into orbit, circling Mars and the moon with unmanned spacecraft, landing on an asteroid and visiting a comet are new developments.

In contrast to the Cold War space race between the United States and the former Soviet Union, the global competition today is being driven by national pride, newly earned wealth, and the confidence that achievements in space will bring substantial soft power as well as military benefits.

China has sent men into space twice in the past five years and plans another manned mission in October. China has decided that space exploration and its commercial and military purposes, are as important as the seas once were to the British empire and air power was to the United States.

8220;The Chinese have a carefully thought-out human spaceflight programme that will take them up to parity with the United States and Russia,8221; Griffin said. 8220;They8217;re investing to make China a strategic world power second to none.8221;

NASA and the U.S. space effort, meanwhile, have been in something of a slump. The combination of the 2003 Columbia disaster, the upcoming five-year 8220;gap8221; when NASA will have no American spacecraft that can reach the space station, and the widely held belief that NASA lacks the funding to accomplish its goals, have together made the U.S. effort appear less than robust.

Uncertainty over the fate of President Bush8217;s ambitious 8220;vision8221; of a manned moon-Mars mission, announced with great fanfare in 2004, is emblematic. The programme was approved by Congress, but the administration8217;s refusal to significantly increase spending to build a new generation of spacecraft has slowed development while leading to angry complaints that NASA is cannibalizing promising unmanned science missions to pay for the moon-Mars effort.

Although NASA8217;s annual funding of 17 billion is large by civilian space agency standards, it constitutes less than 0.6 percent of the federal budget. According to the Futron report, a considerably higher percentage of U.S. space funding goes into military hardware and systems than in any other nation. In its assessment, Futron listed the most significant U.S. space weakness as 8220;limited public interest in space activity.8221;