Slide into anarchy

The marked deepening of the spiral of violence in Iraq since the weekend seems to have multiple dimensions in an already difficult situation. An apparent Shia revolt seems to have combined with the ongoing acts of violence by Sunni resistance groups across the cities of Iraq, all the way from Kirkuk in the north to Fallujah and Baghdad in the centre, to Basra in the south. The anti-US dimensions of the escalating violence, both by remnants of the erstwhile regime and other Iraqi groups, may not be a full-fledged uprising as yet, but appears uncomfortably close to it, propelled as it has been by the Shia revolt led by the firebrand, Muqtada al-Sadr.

The resistance by different groups may well be parallel struggles against the US occupation which tends to hide the deeper inner struggle for power among Iraqis. With the US committed to handing over governance of the country to Iraqis in less than three months from now, the pace of violent resistance seems to be intensifying, threatening to narrow US choices and endangering chances of stability in Iraq. The American dilemma of restoring security to levels which allow transfer of power appears to deepen by the day, with the military seriously examining inducting more forces, even as Paul Bremer threatens increasing the use of force against lawbreakers.

What makes things more complicated is the fact that this is an election year for the US. Senator Edward Kennedy has already described Iraq as “George Bush’s Vietnam” and the Bush administration is fighting to justify its Iraq policy while it tries to make it succeed on the ground. This may compel it to resort increasingly to the use of force in preference to the “political, diplomatic solution” that John Kerry has called for. The need for the involvement of the international community in Iraq is becoming ever more urgent by the day. There is a serious risk that the situation may well spin out of control into a broader crisis, when even a UN-mandated international authority may be unable to prevent a slide into anarchy and civil war.