Should USA attack Iraq?

If the assassination plans do not succeed, the Pentagon has been asked to prepare plans for a major offensive. There have been so many leaks that one does not know what to believe. On Day One, the New York Times reported that Jordan will be the launching pad.

On Day Two, the same paper carried a strong and unequivocal denial from Jordan. On Day Three, we are informed that despite public pronouncements when the chips are down, Jordan will oblige. Jordan8217;s King Abdullah told the press in London last that the only sensible individual in the US administration is Secretary Powell and that it would be a waste of time to talk to the others. Abdullah was on his way to Washington.

8216;Any military action against Iraq,8217; he warned, 8216;will open up a Pandora8217;s box.8217; Predictably, after his discussions with Abdullah, Bush reiterated his call for a 8216;regime change8217; in Iraq.

The New York Times, on July 31, carried a story entitled, 8216;Iraq War Could Hurt Jittery US Economy8217;, in which it was recalled that the 1991 military action against Iraq to throw it out of Kuwait had cost 60 billion and that 80 per cent of that amount was paid by Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Japan and others.

It was pointed out that the proposed action now to effect a 8216;regime change8217; in Iraq will cost around 80 billion, which the US will have to pay for in full. But the piece concludes by saying that since the US has announced the decision for a 8216;regime change8217;, it has to take place.

It is lamentable that in the debating democracy that the US is, only a few are prepared to raise the fundamental question about the wisdom, leave alone the morality, of these plans to attack Iraq. Have not the economic sanctions proved to be deadly weapons of mass destruction?

Except for UK Prime Minister Tony Blair, under attack from his own party for his 8216;automatic alignment8217; with Washington, USA8217;s European allies and Arab friends are strongly opposed to the projected attack on Iraq. Saudi Arabia and Oman have been particularly outspoken in their criticism.

Is there an American policy on Iraq? In trying to understand America8217;s actions and pronouncements relating to Iraq, I am reminded of a story from Hans Christian Andersen: a vain emperor was conned by some wicked men into believing that he was wearing a magnificent dress, so fine that he could neither touch nor see it, when he was actually naked. Courtiers and sycophants poured in to admire the new dress until a little boy told the emperor that he was naked.

I remember a retired US ambassador in Europe telling me that it was lamentable that US8217;s European friends never spoke to the US frankly and fearlessly. I agreed with the ambassador and added that it was equally lamentable that American presidents should think that any action that would push up their approval rating was ipso facto good foreign policy. He agreed.

One last question: why is India keeping mum on the issue? As a true friend, India should ask the US to reconsider its approach to Iraq. A person who does not warn you when you are going in a dangerous direction is no friend. The US is moving with the certitude of the somnambulist. Its friends should do whatever it takes to wake her up.

The writer was India8217;s ambassador to Italy