
Exporters consider the rupee8217;s appreciation their second most serious problem after the rising cost of raw materials, according to a survey by the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry Ficci. The rupee has been on a rising trend for the last eight months and has appreciated by 6.5 per cent since August 1, 2006.
The survey reveals that during the third quarter October-December 2006 of the current fiscal, 62 per cent of the respondents considered the rupee appreciation an important issue against 14 per cent in the second quarter July-September 2006. The Q2 survey of exporters placed rupee appreciation in the 10th position whereas the Q3 survey advanced it to the second position in the list factors affecting their business adversely.
The dollar, which was priced at Rs 46.46 on July 31, 2006, is now selling at Rs 43.47. This means that during the past eight months, the rupee has appreciated by almost 6.5 per cent. The Q3 study has placed the increase in oil prices, competitive environment and inadequate infrastructure as the third, fourth and fifth constraints respectively. These three factors were at the second, third and fourth positions respectively in the Q2 survey.
Speaking to The Indian Express, economist S P Sharma said, 8220;In the next two months, the dollar is likely to further depreciate as it has a direct correlation with rising crude oil prices. The rupee will easily appreciate to the level of Rs 41.50 to the dollar.8221;
He added, 8220;The USA accounts for more than 25 per cent of the world8217;s energy consumption. Crude is already being traded at 66 a barrel and is likely to see an upward trend in the next two months. This can be expected because crude had already touched the peak rate of 80 per barrel.8221;