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This is an archive article published on July 12, 2008

RED SIGNAL

It may have withdrawn support from the UPA Government, raising the possibility of early elections. But in the Left8217;s bastions of West Bengal and Kerala, the party is visibly nervous about facing the voters. The Sunday Express weighs the mood in their camp

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WEST BENGAL

Nandigram and Singur led to the CPIM8217;s electoral reverses in the recent elections to the panchayat and urban civic bodies. Little wonder it8217;s not looking forward to polls

Bidyut Roy
Biman Bose, the CPIM state secretary, was in full flow before reporters and cameras about what the party planned to do after withdrawing support to the Congress-led UPA Government at the Centre, when the question was popped: 8220;Are you ready for elections?8221;
Bose looked at the reporters, got up in a huff, turned right and marched silently towards the exit on the first floor of the party8217;s Alimuddin Street headquarters in Kolkata. At the door, he turned to face the crowd, and said defiantly: 8220;Yes, we are ready.8221;
An hour later, the Left parties officially announced in Delhi that they were withdrawing support to the UPA Government over the Indo-US civil nuclear agreement.
But Bose8217;s silence and the way he abruptly ended the press conference spoke volumes on what the CPIM thinks about going to the polls.
Consider this. The state unit of the CPIM, battered by electoral reverses in the May panchayat elections and then the following month to 13 urban bodies, did a post mortem only to find that Muslims, the party8217;s traditional vote bank, have swung against it. After the panchayat election debacle caused by its land acquisition efforts at Singur and Nandigram, the CPIM had rationalised that it would be able to explain its defeat by citing corruption at the lower levels.
Then came the elections to the urban civic bodies. Of the 13 civic bodies, the Left Front won five and the Opposition bagged eight, wresting four from the Front.
The CPIM8217;s own findings: It failed to win any civic body where Muslims are the deciding factor. Of the five in the Left Front8217;s kitty, the CPIM won three8212;and in none of these were the Muslims a factor. On the other hand, the Revolutionary Socialist Party, a Front ally, won a Muslim-dominated civic body. The Forward Bloc, another ally, won in a similar civic body. In both, the RSP and Bloc faced CPIM candidates and won.
In the elections to the three-tier panchayat system, the CPIM8217;s worst defeats came in South 24 Parganas and East Midnapore, both Muslim-dominated areas. It was almost wiped out from all the tiers. Incidentally, these districts were the sites of the Left Front Government8217;s biggest industrial and infrastructure projects and had run into land acquisition problems.
In North 24 Parganas, Nadia, Birbhum and Hooghly, Mamata Banerjee8217;s Trinamool Congress made big inroads into Left Front territory with clear victories over the two lower tiers of the panchayat samiti and gram panchayat.
In North Bengal, the Left lost North Dinajpur8217;s apex tier to the Congress and got a battering at the lower tiers in Cooch Behar and Malda.
The CPIM did well in Bankura, Purulia, Burdwan and Jalpaiguri districts. Burdwan was a ray of hope for the party8212;the district has a large Muslim vote bank, while Muslims are not a deciding factor in the other three.
But just when the CPIM thought all Muslims had not deserted it, it lost the Guskara civic body in Burdwan in the June elections. Guskara has a strong Muslim vote bank.
Election strategists at Alimuddin Street who analysed the results of the May and June elections reckon the Left Front will not win more than 16-20 seats in Parliament if elections are held now. A far cry from the 35 Lok Sabha seats from West Bengal that the Left Front holds at present.
The CPIM election managers say it does not matter if general elections are held now or after six months8212;the party will not get back the Muslim vote in a hurry. 8220;Many schemes have been taken up,8221; said a senior CPIM Muslim leader. 8220;But I don8217;t think we can repair the damage very soon.8221;
Having given up hope in quick fix solutions, the election strategists are now watching arch foe Mamata Banerjee with a hawk8217;s eyes. Will she continue to maintain her distance from the NDA as well as the Congress? Muslims now pushed to her could desert en masse if she gets close to the Bharatiya Janata Party led NDA government. On the other hand, if Mamata makes up with the Congress, it won8217;t do her any good.

KERALA

An electoral battle may be looming, but the Left is busy fighting its own demons: factionalism, corruption charges and the anti-incumbency factor

Shaju Philip
IN the 2004 Lok Sabha elections in Kerala, the CPIM-led Left Democratic Front walked away with 18 of the state8217;s 20 seats. But they can hardly expect the coming election to be a cakewalk. A divided front, corruption charges, alienated community organisations and internal feuds in the CPIM are likely to upset the Left plan to pack a battery of MPs to Delhi.
Factionalism in the party8217;s state unit is likely to surface again when the time comes to select candidates. The party8217;s official faction, led by state secretary Pinarayi Vijayan, is likely to send many sitting Marxist MPs to the gallery on the ground that they belong to the rival faction led by Chief Minister V.S. Achuthanandan.
Another concern in the party is its loosening grip over the rank and file. Agitations against the party line, which came out in the open when Achuthanandan was denied the ticket to contest the Assembly election in 2006, still keep sprouting across the state.
Last year, party Central Committee member and Education Minister M.A. Baby was buttonholed at Nilambur when he attended a programme, defying the party local leadership. And two weeks ago, CPIM activists at a village in Kozhikode district waylaid party district secretary T.P. Ramakrishnan for three hours, when he reached there to meddle in the affairs of party-ruled local body to protect the interests of a faction. Recently, the party had to face an unexpected revolt when it expelled M.R. Murali, an ex-state functionary of DYFI and vice-chairman of party-ruled Shornoor municipality.
Apart from the intra-party chaos, the CPIM has still to mend its relations with the CPI. Both parties have locked horns over several critical issues. The stand-off between the state leaders of the two parties had trickled down to the lower ranks8212;in many districts the communist clashes have become routine. CITU and AITUC, the trade union wings of the CPIM and the CPI respectively, have taken different lines on issues confronting workers in the coir and plantation segments.
The CPIM8217;s relations with its other ally, the Janata Dal S, too have taken a hit. Last year, the Mathrubhoomi daily, owned by JDS state president M.P. Veerendrakumar had carried several stories exposing the Marxists, souring the relations between Pinarayi and Veerendrakumar. Though the RSP, another minor Left ally, enjoys a good rapport with CPIM, the same can8217;t be said about the Kerala Congress Joseph, which has stakes in the Christian belts of Central Kerala.
Under pressure from the Catholic Church, party chairman P.J. Joseph has been trying to sneak into the Congress-led UDF camp. In the ensuing poll, the Left is not likely to win support from prominent communities. Upper class Hindu Nairs, various Christians and Muslim organisations have been on a warpath for the last two years, mainly over Left reforms in the education sector.
In addition to all this is the anti-incumbency factor. In its two years of governance, the Left Government has done little to boast about. Political killings have revisited Kannur and other communally sensitive places in the state.
The Left8217;s contribution towards job-generating ventures has also virtually drawn a zero. Achuthanandan8217;s effort to clear Munnar hill station of encroachers ended in a fiasco after a section of his own party joined hands with the CPI, charged with churning out fake deeds to land sharks. Many such drives, which his detractors say as one-man show, had failed for want of support from the CPIM leadership.
8220;Achuthanandan failed to deliver what he had promised. This would be a major agenda of the election,8221; said a party leader.
Several leaders of the Left have come under the shadow of corruption. The CPIM itself was rocked by two corruption charges related to its mouthpiece Deshabhimani, involving senior party leaders and their close associates.
8220;Corruption charges coupled with an unholy nexus with land mafia, fake currency rackets and godmen have dented the party image. The CPIM has a track record of raising its anti-corruption stand during the electioneering. However, the next election would be different,8221; said a party leader.
What worries the Left is that even a minor change in the voting share could affect the poll outcome in a big way. In 1999, the LDF won nine seats with 43.7 per cent of the votes. In 2004, their vote share was only 46.1 per cent. But, with that three percentage swing, the front bagged 18 seats.

 

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